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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Birmingham

T S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Stoke

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

36%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

57%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,03 xG 0,36

46% Possession 54%

18 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 13. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	28	17	7	4	+30	+22.5	58
2	Ipswich	27	14	8	5	+23	+22.2	50
3	Millwall	28	14	7	7	+3	+5.2	49
4	Middlesbrough	26	14	6	6	+10	+9.4	48
5	Hull	25	13	5	7	+7	-13.5	44
6	Preston	29	11	10	8	+3	-7.3	43
7	Watford	27	11	9	7	+6	+6.5	42
8	Derby	29	11	9	9	+2	-5.2	42
9	Stoke	28	12	5	11	+8	-4.1	41
10	Wrexham	28	10	11	7	+5	-4.4	41
11	Bristol City	28	11	7	10	+7	-0.6	40
12	QPR	28	11	7	10	-1	+1.2	40
13	Birmingham	28	10	8	10	+1	+11.9	38
14	Leicester	28	10	8	10	-2	-10.3	38
15	Swansea	28	10	6	12	-4	-7.7	36
16	Southampton	26	9	8	9	+4	+11.5	35
17	Sheffield United	27	10	2	15	-4	+12.2	32
18	Charlton	28	8	8	12	-11	-13.1	32
19	West Brom	29	9	5	15	-12	+6.3	32
20	Norwich	28	8	6	14	-5	-9.9	30
21	Portsmouth	26	7	8	11	-13	-6.6	29
22	Blackburn	27	7	7	13	-11	+5.2	28
23	Oxford	27	5	9	13	-10	-6.2	24
24	Sheffield Weds	27	1	8	18	-36	-25.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	11	2	1	+20	+12.1	35
2	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+18	+18.5	34
3	Watford	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.1	29
4	Millwall	14	9	2	3	+6	+8.1	29
5	Middlesbrough	13	8	3	2	+9	+4.0	27
6	Birmingham	13	7	5	1	+14	+14.5	26
7	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.6	25
8	Wrexham	15	6	6	3	+4	+5.8	24
9	QPR	13	7	2	4	+7	+7.5	23
10	Preston	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
11	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
12	Southampton	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.1	22
13	Leicester	13	6	4	3	+4	+1.4	22
14	West Brom	14	6	4	4	-1	+8.4	22
15	Bristol City	14	6	3	5	+8	+0.2	21
16	Stoke	14	6	3	5	+7	+0.4	21
17	Charlton	13	6	3	4	+1	-2.7	21
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Derby	15	4	6	5	-3	-0.6	18
20	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
21	Oxford	14	3	6	5	-4	+1.1	15
22	Blackburn	13	2	4	7	-7	+4.8	10
23	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-7	-1.2	10
24	Sheffield Weds	15	0	4	11	-25	-12.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	14	7	3	4	+5	-4.6	24
2	Coventry	14	6	5	3	+10	+10.4	23
3	Hull	13	6	3	4	+4	-10.3	21
4	Middlesbrough	13	6	3	4	+1	+5.3	21
5	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+2	-8.6	20
6	Stoke	14	6	2	6	+1	-4.5	20
7	Preston	14	5	5	4	+0	-6.5	20
8	Millwall	14	5	5	4	-3	-2.9	20
9	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.8	19
10	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
11	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+1	-10.2	17
12	QPR	15	4	5	6	-8	-6.3	17
13	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
14	Leicester	15	4	4	7	-6	-11.7	16
15	Sheffield United	15	5	0	10	-9	+0.4	15
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Birmingham	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.6	12
19	Swansea	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
20	Charlton	15	2	5	8	-12	-10.5	11
21	Portsmouth	13	2	5	6	-13	-8.1	11
22	West Brom	15	3	1	11	-11	-2.1	10
23	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
24	Sheffield Weds	12	1	4	7	-11	-12.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.