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Serie B

Referee: D Di Marco

Avellino

U U S T T

3–1

Full-time

Cesena

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Avellino Cesena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 39%

29%

48%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 60%

52%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,61 xG 2,40

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Avellino 13. · Cesena 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	21	13	6	2	+21	+3.7	45
2	Venezia	21	13	5	3	+24	+19.2	44
3	Palermo	22	11	8	3	+19	+7.4	41
4	Monza	21	12	5	4	+15	+7.5	41
5	Cesena	21	10	4	7	+4	+5.0	34
6	Modena	21	9	6	6	+11	+5.4	33
7	Juve Stabia	21	8	9	4	+1	+1.2	33
8	Catanzaro	21	8	8	5	+3	-2.2	32
9	Carrarese	21	7	8	6	+0	-4.5	29
10	Empoli	21	7	6	8	-2	+0.4	27
11	Sudtirol	21	5	10	6	+0	-3.5	25
12	Padova	21	6	7	8	-5	-4.0	25
13	Avellino	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.3	25
14	Reggiana	21	5	5	11	-7	-2.9	20
15	Spezia	21	5	5	11	-9	+1.1	20
16	Virtus Entella	21	4	8	9	-10	-5.6	20
17	Bari	22	4	8	10	-16	-12.3	20
18	Sampdoria	21	4	7	10	-8	+1.0	19
19	Mantova	21	5	4	12	-14	-5.9	19
20	Pescara	21	2	8	11	-17	-2.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	10	9	0	1	+18	+8.7	27
2	Monza	11	8	2	1	+12	+4.5	26
3	Palermo	11	7	3	1	+13	+4.5	24
4	Frosinone	10	7	2	1	+14	+2.7	23
5	Juve Stabia	11	6	5	0	+8	+1.9	23
6	Catanzaro	11	5	5	1	+5	+1.6	20
7	Carrarese	11	5	4	2	+7	+2.3	19
8	Modena	11	5	3	3	+7	-1.3	18
9	Virtus Entella	10	4	5	1	+4	-1.3	17
10	Empoli	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.9	15
11	Cesena	10	4	3	3	+3	+5.8	15
12	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.5	15
13	Avellino	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.6	15
14	Sudtirol	10	4	2	4	+3	-1.8	14
15	Bari	11	3	4	4	-3	-7.3	13
16	Reggiana	10	3	3	4	+0	-1.9	12
17	Spezia	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.2	12
18	Padova	10	2	5	3	-1	-4.1	11
19	Mantova	11	3	2	6	-8	-0.9	11
20	Pescara	11	2	4	5	-3	-0.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	11	6	4	1	+7	+1.0	22
2	Cesena	11	6	1	4	+1	-0.8	19
3	Venezia	11	4	5	2	+6	+10.6	17
4	Palermo	11	4	5	2	+6	+2.9	17
5	Modena	10	4	3	3	+4	+6.8	15
6	Monza	10	4	3	3	+3	+2.9	15
7	Padova	11	4	2	5	-4	+0.1	14
8	Catanzaro	10	3	3	4	-2	-3.8	12
9	Empoli	10	4	0	6	-7	-2.5	12
10	Sudtirol	11	1	8	2	-3	-1.7	11
11	Carrarese	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
12	Juve Stabia	10	2	4	4	-7	-0.7	10
13	Avellino	11	2	4	5	-7	-2.6	10
14	Spezia	10	2	2	6	-4	+2.3	8
15	Mantova	10	2	2	6	-6	-5.0	8
16	Reggiana	11	2	2	7	-7	-1.0	8
17	Bari	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.0	7
18	Sampdoria	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.5	4
19	Pescara	10	0	4	6	-14	-1.8	4
20	Virtus Entella	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.