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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brighton

S U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Everton

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

39%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

52%

30%

Both score Ø 55%

70%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 1,20

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 12. · Everton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	23	15	5	3	+25	+24.1	50
2	Man City	23	14	4	5	+26	+15.7	46
3	Aston Villa	23	14	4	5	+10	-5.0	46
4	Man United	23	10	8	5	+7	+12.7	38
5	Chelsea	23	10	7	6	+14	+8.1	37
6	Liverpool	23	10	6	7	+3	+9.9	36
7	Fulham	23	10	4	9	+0	-6.6	34
8	Brentford	23	10	3	10	+3	+7.1	33
9	Newcastle	23	9	6	8	+3	+9.6	33
10	Everton	23	9	6	8	-1	-8.7	33
11	Sunderland	23	8	9	6	-2	-12.6	33
12	Brighton	23	7	9	7	+2	+2.8	30
13	Bournemouth	23	7	9	7	-5	+3.1	30
14	Tottenham	23	7	7	9	+2	-6.9	28
15	Crystal Palace	23	7	7	9	-4	+4.4	28
16	Leeds	23	6	8	9	-7	+0.8	26
17	Nott'm Forest	23	7	4	12	-11	-7.6	25
18	West Ham	23	5	5	13	-18	-13.0	20
19	Burnley	23	3	6	14	-19	-27.2	15
20	Wolves	23	1	5	17	-28	-10.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+20	+14.5	29
3	Aston Villa	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.5	25
4	Brentford	12	7	3	2	+11	+7.2	24
5	Sunderland	11	6	5	0	+9	-2.6	23
6	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+7	-1.4	23
7	Newcastle	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.9	23
8	Bournemouth	12	6	4	2	+6	+8.2	22
9	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	+10.9	21
10	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+5	+8.9	21
11	Brighton	11	5	5	1	+7	+3.8	20
12	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.7	19
13	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+6	+4.5	18
14	Everton	12	4	4	4	-1	-2.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	2	6	4	-4	+6.7	12
16	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-5	+0.5	11
17	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-5	-11.0	10
18	West Ham	12	3	1	8	-10	-4.9	10
19	Tottenham	11	2	3	6	-1	-0.7	9
20	Wolves	11	1	2	8	-13	-3.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+5	+9.6	21
2	Aston Villa	12	6	3	3	+1	-5.5	21
3	Chelsea	12	5	4	3	+8	+3.6	19
4	Tottenham	12	5	4	3	+3	-6.2	19
5	Man City	11	5	2	4	+5	+3.2	17
6	Man United	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.8	17
7	Everton	11	5	2	4	+0	-6.1	17
8	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.3	16
9	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
10	Nott'm Forest	12	4	2	6	-6	-8.2	14
11	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-7	-5.3	11
12	Newcastle	11	2	4	5	-2	+0.7	10
13	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
14	West Ham	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.0	10
15	Sunderland	12	2	4	6	-11	-10.0	10
16	Brentford	11	3	0	8	-8	-0.1	9
17	Bournemouth	11	1	5	5	-11	-5.0	8
18	Leeds	12	1	4	7	-13	-6.9	7
19	Burnley	11	1	2	8	-14	-16.2	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.