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Championship

Referee: Adam Herczeg

Birmingham

S S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Watford

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

41%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 59%

47%

71%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,26 xG 1,03

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 11. · Watford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	18	13	4	1	+32	+19.3	43
2	Middlesbrough	17	9	5	3	+5	+3.3	32
3	Millwall	18	9	4	5	-3	+3.8	31
4	Stoke	18	9	3	6	+12	-0.4	30
5	Preston	18	8	6	4	+6	-2.1	30
6	Bristol City	18	8	5	5	+6	+1.5	29
7	Hull	18	8	4	6	+0	-11.1	28
8	Ipswich	17	7	6	4	+11	+15.5	27
9	Wrexham	18	6	8	4	+3	-4.8	26
10	Derby	18	7	5	6	+0	-6.7	26
11	Birmingham	17	7	4	6	+6	+11.8	25
12	West Brom	18	7	4	7	-2	+0.9	25
13	QPR	18	7	4	7	-6	+1.7	25
14	Watford	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.0	24
15	Leicester	18	6	6	6	-1	-3.4	24
16	Southampton	17	6	5	6	+3	+8.5	23
17	Charlton	18	6	5	7	-5	-8.3	23
18	Blackburn	17	6	2	9	-5	+3.5	20
19	Sheffield United	18	6	1	11	-8	+3.8	19
20	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-5	-5.2	18
21	Swansea	18	4	5	9	-9	-9.1	17
22	Portsmouth	18	4	5	9	-10	-6.8	17
23	Norwich	18	3	4	11	-10	-7.3	13
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	5	12	-22	-12.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	2	0	+18	+9.0	23
2	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+4	+0.0	20
3	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
4	Watford	9	5	3	1	+6	+4.4	18
5	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+12	+11.7	17
6	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
7	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
8	Stoke	9	5	1	3	+8	+2.5	16
9	Ipswich	9	4	4	1	+6	+12.1	16
10	West Brom	9	4	4	1	+3	+4.5	16
11	Wrexham	10	4	4	2	+2	+2.4	16
12	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
13	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
14	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
16	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+3	+7.0	11
17	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
18	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
19	Oxford	9	2	4	3	-3	+0.1	10
20	Swansea	9	2	3	4	-5	-2.8	9
21	Sheffield United	8	2	1	5	-4	+3.6	7
22	Norwich	9	1	1	7	-6	-0.4	4
23	Blackburn	8	1	1	6	-7	+0.7	4
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-19	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	6	2	1	+14	+10.3	20
2	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.7	16
3	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
4	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.9	14
5	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	-5.5	14
6	QPR	10	4	2	4	-5	-3.3	14
7	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.9	13
8	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
9	Southampton	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.5	12
10	Millwall	8	3	3	2	-3	-0.4	12
11	Sheffield United	10	4	0	6	-4	+0.2	12
12	Ipswich	8	3	2	3	+5	+3.5	11
13	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
14	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	-6.3	11
15	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.2	10
16	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-6.9	9
17	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
18	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.6	9
19	Oxford	9	2	2	5	-2	-5.3	8
20	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-4	-6.3	8
21	Birmingham	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
22	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
23	Watford	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
24	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.