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League Cup

Referee: Gavin Ward

Birmingham

S S S T U

2–1

Full-time

Sheffield United

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Sheffield United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,30 xG 0,43

54% Possession 46%

20 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
6	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
7	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
9	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
13	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
14	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
15	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
16	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
17	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
18	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
19	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
20	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
21	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
22	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
23	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
24	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
25	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
26	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
27	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
28	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
29	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
30	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
31	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
32	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
33	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
34	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
35	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
36	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
37	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
38	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
39	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
40	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
41	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
42	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
43	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
44	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
45	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
46	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
47	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
48	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
49	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
50	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
51	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
52	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
53	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
54	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
55	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
56	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
57	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
58	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
59	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
60	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
61	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
62	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
63	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
64	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
65	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
66	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
67	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
7	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
8	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
11	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
12	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
13	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
14	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
15	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
16	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
17	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
18	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
19	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
20	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
21	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
22	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
23	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
24	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
25	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
26	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
27	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
28	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
29	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
30	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
31	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
32	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
33	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
34	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
2	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
3	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
17	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
18	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
19	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
20	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
21	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
22	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
23	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
24	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
25	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
26	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
27	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
28	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
29	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
30	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
31	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
32	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
33	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
34	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
35	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.