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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Leicester

T S U T S

2–0

Full-time

Birmingham

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,56 xG 0,83

45% Possession 55%

5 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 7. · Birmingham 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.2	9
2	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
3	Coventry	3	2	1	0	+8	+3.5	7
4	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
5	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
7	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.8	6
8	Millwall	3	2	0	1	-1	+0.8	6
9	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.9	5
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
11	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
12	Portsmouth	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.0	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.8	4
14	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.8	4
15	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.6	4
16	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.5	3
17	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
18	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
19	Wrexham	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.0	1
20	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
21	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
22	QPR	3	0	1	2	-7	-2.1	1
23	Oxford	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.0	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
2	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.7	4
3	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
4	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
6	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
7	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
8	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.3	3
11	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.6	3
12	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
13	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
14	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
19	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
21	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.4	0
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.6	0
24	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.5	6
3	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.1	6
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.7	4
5	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
6	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
7	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
8	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
9	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
10	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.7	3
12	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
14	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
15	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
16	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
18	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
19	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
20	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
22	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
23	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.