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Premier League

Referee: Lee Probert

Southampton

U U T S U

0–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 30%

32%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

51%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

51%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 10

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 8. · Stoke 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	37	29	3	5	+48	90
2	Tottenham	37	25	8	4	+54	83
3	Man City	37	22	9	6	+36	75
4	Liverpool	37	21	10	6	+33	73
5	Arsenal	37	22	6	9	+31	72
6	Man United	37	17	15	5	+23	66
7	Everton	37	17	10	10	+20	61
8	Southampton	37	12	10	15	-6	46
9	West Brom	37	12	9	16	-7	45
10	Bournemouth	37	12	9	16	-12	45
11	Leicester	37	12	7	18	-15	43
12	West Ham	37	11	9	17	-18	42
13	Crystal Palace	37	12	5	20	-11	41
14	Stoke	37	10	11	16	-16	41
15	Burnley	37	11	7	19	-15	40
16	Watford	37	11	7	19	-23	40
17	Swansea	37	11	5	21	-26	38
18	Hull	37	9	7	21	-37	34
19	Middlesbrough	37	5	13	19	-23	28
20	Sunderland	37	6	6	25	-36	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	19	17	2	0	+38	53
2	Chelsea	18	16	0	2	+34	48
3	Everton	19	13	4	2	+26	43
4	Arsenal	18	13	3	2	+21	42
5	Man City	19	11	7	1	+20	40
6	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+24	38
7	Burnley	18	10	3	5	+7	33
8	Leicester	18	10	3	5	+6	33
9	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
10	Bournemouth	19	9	4	6	+6	31
11	West Brom	19	9	2	8	+5	29
12	Watford	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Hull	18	8	4	6	-1	28
14	Stoke	19	7	6	6	+0	27
15	West Ham	19	7	4	8	-12	25
16	Southampton	18	6	6	6	-3	24
17	Swansea	18	7	3	8	-8	24
18	Crystal Palace	19	6	2	11	-1	20
19	Middlesbrough	19	4	6	9	-6	18
20	Sunderland	19	3	5	11	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	19	13	3	3	+14	42
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Man United	19	10	5	4	+11	35
4	Liverpool	19	10	5	4	+9	35
5	Tottenham	18	8	6	4	+16	30
6	Arsenal	19	9	3	7	+10	30
7	Southampton	19	6	4	9	-3	22
8	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-10	21
9	Everton	18	4	6	8	-6	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	18	3	7	8	-12	16
12	Stoke	18	3	5	10	-16	14
13	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
14	Swansea	19	4	2	13	-18	14
15	Watford	19	3	3	13	-24	12
16	Middlesbrough	18	1	7	10	-17	10
17	Sunderland	18	3	1	14	-18	10
18	Leicester	19	2	4	13	-21	10
19	Burnley	19	1	4	14	-22	7
20	Hull	19	1	3	15	-36	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.