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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Stefanski

Jagiellonia

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Lech Poznan

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 63%

58%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

54%

42%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,54 xG 1,61

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 3. · Lech Poznan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	25	15	7	3	+21	+10.6	52
2	Lech Poznan	24	16	2	6	+27	+9.9	50
3	Jagiellonia	24	14	6	4	+16	+2.6	48
4	Pogon Szczecin	25	13	4	8	+13	+11.0	43
5	Legia	25	11	7	7	+13	+9.5	40
6	Gornik Zabrze	25	12	4	9	+7	+3.9	40
7	Cracovia	25	10	8	7	+5	-5.2	38
8	Motor Lublin	25	10	6	9	-9	-1.0	36
9	GKS Katowice	25	9	6	10	+2	+2.7	33
10	Piast Gliwice	25	8	9	8	+0	-2.6	33
11	Korona Kielce	25	8	9	8	-7	-1.4	33
12	Radomiak Radom	25	9	4	12	-5	+0.7	31
13	Widzew Lodz	25	8	6	11	-11	-5.1	30
14	Puszcza	25	6	7	12	-11	-12.7	25
15	Stal Mielec	25	6	5	14	-12	+1.5	23
16	Zaglebie	25	6	5	14	-17	-7.3	23
17	Lechia Gdansk	25	5	6	14	-18	-15.3	21
18	Slask Wroclaw	25	3	9	13	-14	-2.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	13	11	0	2	+23	+8.3	33
2	Pogon Szczecin	13	10	1	2	+14	+11.9	31
3	Jagiellonia	12	8	3	1	+15	+4.4	27
4	Legia	12	8	2	2	+15	+8.2	26
5	Rakow	13	7	3	3	+9	+6.0	24
6	Gornik Zabrze	13	7	2	4	+8	+6.1	23
7	Widzew Lodz	13	6	2	5	-2	-1.2	20
8	Radomiak Radom	13	5	4	4	+5	+4.2	19
9	GKS Katowice	12	5	4	3	+5	-1.8	19
10	Motor Lublin	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.1	19
11	Stal Mielec	13	5	3	5	-1	+5.6	18
12	Korona Kielce	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.8	17
13	Puszcza	12	4	4	4	-1	-1.8	16
14	Cracovia	13	3	6	4	+0	-1.7	15
15	Piast Gliwice	12	3	6	3	-1	-0.6	15
16	Zaglebie	12	4	2	6	-4	-2.9	14
17	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	5	5	-3	-1.4	11
18	Lechia Gdansk	12	3	2	7	-9	-8.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	12	8	4	0	+12	+4.7	28
2	Cracovia	12	7	2	3	+5	-3.5	23
3	Jagiellonia	12	6	3	3	+1	-1.8	21
4	Piast Gliwice	13	5	3	5	+1	-2.0	18
5	Lech Poznan	11	5	2	4	+4	+1.6	17
6	Gornik Zabrze	12	5	2	5	-1	-2.1	17
7	Motor Lublin	13	5	2	6	-10	-1.1	17
8	Korona Kielce	13	3	7	3	-6	-5.2	16
9	Legia	13	3	5	5	-2	+1.3	14
10	GKS Katowice	13	4	2	7	-3	+4.5	14
11	Pogon Szczecin	12	3	3	6	-1	-0.9	12
12	Radomiak Radom	12	4	0	8	-10	-3.6	12
13	Lechia Gdansk	13	2	4	7	-9	-6.5	10
14	Widzew Lodz	12	2	4	6	-9	-3.9	10
15	Puszcza	13	2	3	8	-10	-10.9	9
16	Zaglebie	13	2	3	8	-13	-4.4	9
17	Slask Wroclaw	13	1	4	8	-11	-0.7	7
18	Stal Mielec	12	1	2	9	-11	-4.1	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.