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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Roma

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 34%

46%

21%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,56 xG 0,82

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 8. · Cagliari 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	28	18	7	3	+36	+27.3	61
2	Napoli	29	18	7	4	+22	+19.4	61
3	Atalanta	28	17	7	4	+37	+24.3	58
4	Bologna	29	14	11	4	+15	+12.3	53
5	Juventus	28	13	13	2	+20	+12.0	52
6	Lazio	29	15	6	8	+9	+11.6	51
7	Milan	29	13	8	8	+11	+17.1	47
8	Roma	28	13	7	8	+13	+9.1	46
9	Fiorentina	28	13	6	9	+13	+5.2	45
10	Udinese	29	11	7	11	-4	-7.2	40
11	Torino	29	9	11	9	+0	-13.7	38
12	Genoa	29	8	11	10	-9	-6.3	35
13	Como	29	7	8	14	-11	+0.5	29
14	Verona	29	9	2	18	-29	-16.8	29
15	Cagliari	28	6	8	14	-15	-11.2	26
16	Parma	29	5	10	14	-14	-14.4	25
17	Lecce	29	6	7	16	-27	-20.0	25
18	Empoli	29	4	10	15	-23	-14.8	22
19	Venezia	29	3	11	15	-19	-17.8	20
20	Monza	29	2	9	18	-25	-16.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	3	1	+16	+13.6	33
2	Bologna	15	9	5	1	+16	+15.0	32
3	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+11	+15.7	32
4	Roma	14	9	1	4	+17	+8.5	28
5	Juventus	15	7	7	1	+10	+7.8	28
6	Milan	15	7	6	2	+11	+10.0	27
7	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+8	+7.9	27
8	Lazio	14	7	5	2	+8	+8.4	26
9	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+13	+11.7	25
10	Udinese	15	7	2	6	+1	-3.2	23
11	Torino	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.4	20
12	Como	14	5	4	5	+0	+1.7	19
13	Genoa	15	4	7	4	-1	-1.8	19
14	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
15	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-8	-2.6	16
16	Venezia	14	3	5	6	-3	-2.5	14
17	Lecce	14	3	5	6	-14	-6.7	14
18	Verona	14	4	1	9	-19	-5.3	13
19	Monza	15	1	5	9	-9	-4.8	8
20	Empoli	14	1	5	8	-15	-7.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	10	3	2	+24	+12.6	33
2	Napoli	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.6	29
3	Inter	14	8	4	2	+20	+13.7	28
4	Lazio	15	8	1	6	+1	+3.2	25
5	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+10	+4.2	24
6	Bologna	14	5	6	3	-1	-2.7	21
7	Milan	14	6	2	6	+0	+7.1	20
8	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+5	-2.7	18
9	Torino	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.3	18
10	Roma	14	4	6	4	-4	+0.6	18
11	Udinese	14	4	5	5	-5	-4.0	17
12	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-8	-4.5	16
13	Verona	15	5	1	9	-10	-11.5	16
14	Empoli	15	3	5	7	-8	-7.5	14
15	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-13	-13.3	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	-8.6	10
17	Como	15	2	4	9	-11	-1.2	10
18	Parma	14	1	6	7	-11	-12.4	9
19	Monza	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.9	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.