Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Bologna
Lazio
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter
|
28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | +36 | +27.3 | 61 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | +22 | +19.4 | 61 |
| 3 |
Atalanta
|
28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | +37 | +24.3 | 58 |
| 4 |
Juventus
|
28 | 13 | 13 | 2 | +20 | +12.0 | 52 |
| 5 |
Lazio
|
28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | +14 | +13.3 | 51 |
| 6 |
Bologna
|
28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | +10 | +10.6 | 50 |
| 7 |
Milan
|
29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | +11 | +17.1 | 47 |
| 8 |
Roma
|
28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +13 | +9.1 | 46 |
| 9 |
Fiorentina
|
28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +13 | +5.2 | 45 |
| 10 |
Udinese
|
29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -4 | -7.2 | 40 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | +0 | -13.7 | 38 |
| 12 |
Genoa
|
29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | -9 | -6.3 | 35 |
| 13 |
Como
|
29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -11 | +0.5 | 29 |
| 14 |
Verona
|
29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | -29 | -16.8 | 29 |
| 15 |
Cagliari
|
28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -15 | -11.2 | 26 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -14 | -14.4 | 25 |
| 17 |
Lecce
|
29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -27 | -20.0 | 25 |
| 18 |
Empoli
|
29 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -23 | -14.8 | 22 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
29 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -19 | -17.8 | 20 |
| 20 |
Monza
|
29 | 2 | 9 | 18 | -25 | -16.7 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Verona
Bologna
Bologna
Cagliari
Bologna
Milan
Parma
Bologna
Bologna
Torino
A Colombo · 84 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.