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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Lasyk

Stal Mielec

U T U T T

3–2

Full-time

Jagiellonia

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

0,5

2,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

33%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

53%

80%

Both score Ø 62%

50%

73%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,74 xG 2,37

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 11. · Jagiellonia 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	30	16	8	6	+27	+13.2	56
2	Slask Wroclaw	31	15	9	7	+12	+5.7	54
3	Lech Poznan	31	14	10	7	+8	-5.7	52
4	Gornik Zabrze	31	15	6	10	+5	-8.0	51
5	Legia	30	13	11	6	+12	+9.3	50
6	Rakow	31	13	10	8	+17	+20.8	49
7	Pogon Szczecin	30	14	6	10	+20	+13.4	48
8	Widzew Lodz	30	12	6	12	+0	-3.2	42
9	Zaglebie	31	11	8	12	-9	+2.6	41
10	Piast Gliwice	30	8	14	8	+0	+13.2	38
11	Stal Mielec	30	10	8	12	-6	-11.8	38
12	Cracovia	31	7	15	9	+3	+0.0	36
13	Radomiak Radom	30	9	8	13	-14	-4.4	35
14	Warta Poznan	30	8	10	12	-6	-9.1	34
15	Puszcza	30	7	12	11	-11	-14.8	33
16	Korona Kielce	30	6	13	11	-4	-0.6	31
17	Ruch Chorzow	31	4	14	13	-17	-6.0	26
18	LKS Lodz	31	5	6	20	-37	-14.5	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	15	10	3	2	+24	+13.9	33
2	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+22	+13.4	32
3	Lech Poznan	15	9	4	2	+15	+1.5	31
4	Gornik Zabrze	15	9	3	3	+9	-3.7	30
5	Legia	15	7	6	2	+11	+8.6	27
6	Widzew Lodz	15	9	0	6	+2	+3.7	27
7	Stal Mielec	15	7	5	3	+7	-1.1	26
8	Slask Wroclaw	15	7	4	4	+7	+9.3	25
9	Piast Gliwice	15	6	6	3	+6	+12.2	24
10	Pogon Szczecin	15	7	2	6	+8	+14.6	23
11	Puszcza	15	5	8	2	+1	-2.1	23
12	Zaglebie	16	6	5	5	+0	+1.3	23
13	Korona Kielce	15	5	7	3	+6	+9.0	22
14	Cracovia	16	4	7	5	+5	+1.8	19
15	Warta Poznan	15	4	5	6	-1	-2.8	17
16	Radomiak Radom	15	4	5	6	-4	+1.2	17
17	LKS Lodz	16	4	5	7	-11	-8.7	17
18	Ruch Chorzow	16	3	7	6	-3	+2.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	5	3	+5	-3.6	29
2	Pogon Szczecin	15	7	4	4	+12	-1.3	25
3	Jagiellonia	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
4	Legia	15	6	5	4	+1	+0.8	23
5	Gornik Zabrze	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.3	21
6	Lech Poznan	16	5	6	5	-7	-7.2	21
7	Zaglebie	15	5	3	7	-9	+1.3	18
8	Radomiak Radom	15	5	3	7	-10	-5.6	18
9	Cracovia	15	3	8	4	-2	-1.8	17
10	Rakow	16	4	5	7	-5	+7.4	17
11	Warta Poznan	15	4	5	6	-5	-6.4	17
12	Widzew Lodz	15	3	6	6	-2	-6.9	15
13	Piast Gliwice	15	2	8	5	-6	+1.1	14
14	Stal Mielec	15	3	3	9	-13	-10.8	12
15	Puszcza	15	2	4	9	-12	-12.7	10
16	Ruch Chorzow	15	1	7	7	-14	-8.5	10
17	Korona Kielce	15	1	6	8	-10	-9.6	9
18	LKS Lodz	15	1	1	13	-26	-5.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.