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Ekstraklasa

Referee: T Kwiatkowski

Zaglebie

S U U T T

1–2

Full-time

Jagiellonia

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zaglebie Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

32%

54%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

43%

79%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,1

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,02 xG 2,86

49% Possession 51%

25 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Zaglebie 11. · Jagiellonia 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	28	15	7	6	+26	+13.1	52
2	Slask Wroclaw	28	14	8	6	+12	+6.0	50
3	Lech Poznan	28	13	9	6	+8	-4.3	48
4	Gornik Zabrze	29	14	6	9	+7	-6.5	48
5	Pogon Szczecin	29	14	5	10	+20	+13.6	47
6	Rakow	29	12	10	7	+18	+20.4	46
7	Legia	28	12	10	6	+10	+7.7	46
8	Widzew Lodz	29	12	6	11	+1	-3.2	42
9	Stal Mielec	28	10	8	10	-1	-10.2	38
10	Piast Gliwice	29	7	14	8	-2	+11.8	35
11	Zaglebie	28	9	8	11	-11	+1.9	35
12	Radomiak Radom	29	9	8	12	-13	-3.4	35
13	Cracovia	28	6	14	8	-1	-1.4	32
14	Warta Poznan	28	7	10	11	-7	-7.7	31
15	Korona Kielce	29	6	12	11	-4	+0.2	30
16	Puszcza	28	6	11	11	-12	-15.7	29
17	LKS Lodz	28	5	6	17	-32	-16.3	21
18	Ruch Chorzow	29	2	14	13	-19	-6.0	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	14	10	2	2	+24	+13.7	32
2	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+22	+13.4	32
3	Lech Poznan	14	9	3	2	+15	+1.5	30
4	Gornik Zabrze	14	8	3	3	+6	-3.7	27
5	Widzew Lodz	14	9	0	5	+3	+3.7	27
6	Legia	14	7	5	2	+11	+8.6	26
7	Stal Mielec	14	7	5	2	+9	+0.6	26
8	Slask Wroclaw	14	7	4	3	+8	+9.3	25
9	Pogon Szczecin	15	7	2	6	+8	+14.6	23
10	Korona Kielce	15	5	7	3	+6	+9.0	22
11	Puszcza	14	5	7	2	+1	-3.0	22
12	Piast Gliwice	14	5	6	3	+4	+10.7	21
13	Zaglebie	14	5	5	4	-1	+1.6	20
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	5	5	-3	+2.1	17
15	LKS Lodz	14	4	5	5	-9	-10.4	17
16	Cracovia	14	3	7	4	+1	+0.4	16
17	Warta Poznan	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.8	14
18	Ruch Chorzow	15	2	7	6	-4	+2.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	14	7	4	3	+4	-3.3	25
2	Pogon Szczecin	14	7	3	4	+12	-1.1	24
3	Gornik Zabrze	15	6	3	6	+1	-2.8	21
4	Jagiellonia	14	5	5	4	+2	-0.6	20
5	Legia	14	5	5	4	-1	-0.9	20
6	Lech Poznan	14	4	6	4	-7	-5.8	18
7	Radomiak Radom	15	5	3	7	-10	-5.6	18
8	Warta Poznan	14	4	5	5	-3	-4.9	17
9	Cracovia	14	3	7	4	-2	-1.8	16
10	Widzew Lodz	15	3	6	6	-2	-6.9	15
11	Zaglebie	14	4	3	7	-10	+0.4	15
12	Rakow	14	3	5	6	-4	+7.0	14
13	Piast Gliwice	15	2	8	5	-6	+1.1	14
14	Stal Mielec	14	3	3	8	-10	-10.8	12
15	Korona Kielce	14	1	5	8	-10	-8.7	8
16	Puszcza	14	1	4	9	-13	-12.8	7
17	Ruch Chorzow	14	0	7	7	-15	-8.5	7
18	LKS Lodz	14	1	1	12	-23	-5.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.