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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Sylwestrzak

Korona Kielce

T U T U T

1–0

Full-time

Stal Mielec

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Korona Kielce Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

15%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

38%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

62%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

8 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Korona Kielce 16. · Stal Mielec 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	26	15	6	5	+28	+13.4	51
2	Slask Wroclaw	26	13	8	5	+13	+4.8	47
3	Rakow	27	12	9	6	+19	+19.6	45
4	Lech Poznan	26	12	9	5	+8	-2.8	45
5	Pogon Szczecin	26	13	5	8	+18	+12.6	44
6	Legia	26	12	8	6	+10	+7.8	44
7	Gornik Zabrze	26	11	6	9	+3	-4.6	39
8	Stal Mielec	26	10	7	9	+0	-9.9	37
9	Widzew Lodz	26	10	5	11	-1	-3.9	35
10	Radomiak Radom	27	9	8	10	-8	-0.0	35
11	Zaglebie	26	9	8	9	-8	+3.9	35
12	Cracovia	27	5	14	8	-3	-1.7	29
13	Piast Gliwice	26	5	14	7	-5	+10.4	29
14	Warta Poznan	26	6	10	10	-7	-8.3	28
15	Puszcza	26	5	10	11	-13	-17.3	25
16	Korona Kielce	26	4	12	10	-8	-1.9	24
17	Ruch Chorzow	26	2	13	11	-13	-5.2	19
18	LKS Lodz	27	4	6	17	-33	-16.9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	13	10	2	1	+26	+14.0	32
2	Rakow	13	9	4	0	+23	+12.6	31
3	Lech Poznan	13	8	3	2	+14	+1.5	27
4	Legia	13	7	4	2	+11	+8.6	25
5	Stal Mielec	13	7	4	2	+9	+0.9	25
6	Gornik Zabrze	13	7	3	3	+4	-2.5	24
7	Widzew Lodz	13	8	0	5	+2	+3.7	24
8	Slask Wroclaw	13	6	4	3	+7	+9.3	22
9	Pogon Szczecin	13	6	2	5	+5	+13.7	20
10	Zaglebie	13	5	5	3	+0	+1.6	20
11	Puszcza	13	4	7	2	+0	-4.5	19
12	Piast Gliwice	13	4	6	3	+2	+8.7	18
13	Radomiak Radom	14	4	5	5	-3	+2.1	17
14	Cracovia	14	3	7	4	+1	+0.4	16
15	Korona Kielce	13	3	7	3	+1	+6.2	16
16	LKS Lodz	13	3	5	5	-10	-11.1	14
17	Ruch Chorzow	13	2	6	5	-3	+2.9	12
18	Warta Poznan	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	13	7	4	2	+6	-4.5	25
2	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+13	-1.1	24
3	Jagiellonia	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.6	19
4	Legia	13	5	4	4	-1	-0.8	19
5	Radomiak Radom	13	5	3	5	-5	-2.1	18
6	Lech Poznan	13	4	6	3	-6	-4.3	18
7	Warta Poznan	13	4	5	4	-2	-4.9	17
8	Gornik Zabrze	13	4	3	6	-1	-2.1	15
9	Zaglebie	13	4	3	6	-8	+2.3	15
10	Rakow	14	3	5	6	-4	+7.0	14
11	Cracovia	13	2	7	4	-4	-2.1	13
12	Stal Mielec	13	3	3	7	-9	-10.8	12
13	Widzew Lodz	13	2	5	6	-3	-7.6	11
14	Piast Gliwice	13	1	8	4	-7	+1.7	11
15	Korona Kielce	13	1	5	7	-9	-8.1	8
16	Ruch Chorzow	13	0	7	6	-10	-8.1	7
17	Puszcza	13	1	3	9	-13	-12.8	6
18	LKS Lodz	14	1	1	12	-23	-5.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.