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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Szczerbowicz

Warta Poznan

T T U T S

5–2

Full-time

Stal Mielec

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Warta Poznan Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,3

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 31%

25%

36%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

32%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

46%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Warta Poznan 15. · Stal Mielec 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	29	16	7	6	+27	+13.0	55
2	Slask Wroclaw	29	14	9	6	+12	+6.0	51
3	Lech Poznan	29	14	9	6	+9	-5.7	51
4	Gornik Zabrze	29	14	6	9	+7	-6.5	48
5	Pogon Szczecin	29	14	5	10	+20	+13.6	47
6	Legia	29	12	11	6	+10	+7.7	47
7	Rakow	29	12	10	7	+18	+20.4	46
8	Widzew Lodz	29	12	6	11	+1	-3.2	42
9	Stal Mielec	28	10	8	10	-1	-10.2	38
10	Piast Gliwice	29	7	14	8	-2	+11.8	35
11	Zaglebie	29	9	8	12	-12	+2.1	35
12	Radomiak Radom	29	9	8	12	-13	-3.4	35
13	Cracovia	29	6	14	9	-2	-1.5	32
14	Puszcza	29	7	11	11	-11	-15.7	32
15	Warta Poznan	28	7	10	11	-7	-7.7	31
16	Korona Kielce	29	6	12	11	-4	+0.2	30
17	LKS Lodz	29	5	6	18	-33	-14.9	21
18	Ruch Chorzow	29	2	14	13	-19	-6.0	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	14	10	2	2	+24	+13.7	32
2	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+22	+13.4	32
3	Lech Poznan	14	9	3	2	+15	+1.5	30
4	Legia	15	7	6	2	+11	+8.6	27
5	Gornik Zabrze	14	8	3	3	+6	-3.7	27
6	Widzew Lodz	14	9	0	5	+3	+3.7	27
7	Stal Mielec	14	7	5	2	+9	+0.6	26
8	Slask Wroclaw	14	7	4	3	+8	+9.3	25
9	Pogon Szczecin	15	7	2	6	+8	+14.6	23
10	Korona Kielce	15	5	7	3	+6	+9.0	22
11	Puszcza	14	5	7	2	+1	-3.0	22
12	Piast Gliwice	14	5	6	3	+4	+10.7	21
13	Zaglebie	15	5	5	5	-2	+1.7	20
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	5	5	-3	+2.1	17
15	LKS Lodz	15	4	5	6	-10	-9.0	17
16	Cracovia	15	3	7	5	+0	+0.3	16
17	Warta Poznan	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.8	14
18	Ruch Chorzow	15	2	7	6	-4	+2.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	15	7	5	3	+4	-3.3	26
2	Pogon Szczecin	14	7	3	4	+12	-1.1	24
3	Jagiellonia	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
4	Gornik Zabrze	15	6	3	6	+1	-2.8	21
5	Lech Poznan	15	5	6	4	-6	-7.2	21
6	Legia	14	5	5	4	-1	-0.9	20
7	Radomiak Radom	15	5	3	7	-10	-5.6	18
8	Warta Poznan	14	4	5	5	-3	-4.9	17
9	Cracovia	14	3	7	4	-2	-1.8	16
10	Widzew Lodz	15	3	6	6	-2	-6.9	15
11	Zaglebie	14	4	3	7	-10	+0.4	15
12	Rakow	14	3	5	6	-4	+7.0	14
13	Piast Gliwice	15	2	8	5	-6	+1.1	14
14	Stal Mielec	14	3	3	8	-10	-10.8	12
15	Puszcza	15	2	4	9	-12	-12.7	10
16	Korona Kielce	14	1	5	8	-10	-8.7	8
17	Ruch Chorzow	14	0	7	7	-15	-8.5	7
18	LKS Lodz	14	1	1	12	-23	-5.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.