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Süper Lig

Referee: A Karaoğlan

Kayserispor

T T U T S

2–2

Full-time

Karagumruk

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kayserispor Karagumruk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,58 xG 1,90

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Kayserispor 12. · Karagumruk 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	34	30	3	1	+59	+45.5	93
2	Fenerbahce	34	28	5	1	+58	+54.8	89
3	Trabzonspor	34	18	4	12	+15	+3.6	58
4	Besiktas	35	16	6	13	+6	+11.1	54
5	Buyuksehyr	34	15	7	12	+7	+0.3	52
6	Alanyaspor	35	12	13	10	+3	+5.8	49
7	Kasimpasa	34	14	7	13	-3	-8.4	49
8	Rizespor	35	14	7	14	-7	-5.2	49
9	Sivasspor	34	12	12	10	-4	-4.9	48
10	Antalyaspor	34	11	12	11	-3	-3.3	45
11	Ad. Demirspor	35	10	14	11	+3	-2.6	44
12	Kayserispor	34	11	10	13	-9	-9.8	43
13	Ankaragücü	35	8	15	12	-3	-6.1	39
14	Samsunspor	34	10	9	15	-7	+4.3	39
15	Karagumruk	34	9	9	16	-2	-13.7	36
16	Konyaspor	34	8	12	14	-14	-10.5	36
17	Gaziantep	34	9	7	18	-15	-16.7	34
18	Hatayspor	34	7	12	15	-10	-5.5	33
19	Pendikspor	34	7	9	18	-32	-12.4	30
20	İstanbulspor	35	4	7	24	-42	-26.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	17	17	0	0	+32	+30.6	51
2	Fenerbahce	17	13	3	1	+30	+31.0	42
3	Rizespor	18	11	4	3	+13	+5.9	37
4	Besiktas	18	10	3	5	+10	+7.9	33
5	Ad. Demirspor	17	9	4	4	+12	+6.3	31
6	Samsunspor	17	9	4	4	+9	+6.7	31
7	Trabzonspor	17	10	1	6	+8	+6.7	31
8	Buyuksehyr	17	9	3	5	+9	+2.2	30
9	Antalyaspor	17	7	8	2	+4	+0.5	29
10	Karagumruk	17	7	6	4	+14	-0.9	27
11	Alanyaspor	17	7	6	4	+6	+4.4	27
12	Sivasspor	17	6	8	3	+4	+3.6	26
13	Ankaragücü	18	6	8	4	+3	+0.4	26
14	Kasimpasa	17	7	4	6	-2	-4.7	25
15	Kayserispor	17	6	6	5	+2	+2.3	24
16	Hatayspor	17	5	7	5	+1	-2.2	22
17	Gaziantep	17	5	5	7	-5	-8.2	20
18	Konyaspor	16	5	4	7	-1	+1.4	19
19	Pendikspor	17	5	3	9	-11	-5.2	18
20	İstanbulspor	18	2	3	13	-23	-16.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	17	15	2	0	+28	+23.9	47
2	Galatasaray	17	13	3	1	+27	+14.9	42
3	Trabzonspor	17	8	3	6	+7	-3.1	27
4	Kasimpasa	17	7	3	7	-1	-3.7	24
5	Buyuksehyr	17	6	4	7	-2	-1.8	22
6	Alanyaspor	18	5	7	6	-3	+1.5	22
7	Sivasspor	17	6	4	7	-8	-8.5	22
8	Besiktas	17	6	3	8	-4	+3.2	21
9	Kayserispor	17	5	4	8	-11	-12.1	19
10	Konyaspor	18	3	8	7	-13	-11.8	17
11	Antalyaspor	17	4	4	9	-7	-3.7	16
12	Gaziantep	17	4	2	11	-10	-8.5	14
13	Ankaragücü	17	2	7	8	-6	-6.6	13
14	Ad. Demirspor	18	1	10	7	-9	-8.9	13
15	Rizespor	17	3	3	11	-20	-11.0	12
16	Pendikspor	17	2	6	9	-21	-7.1	12
17	Hatayspor	17	2	5	10	-11	-3.3	11
18	İstanbulspor	17	2	4	11	-19	-9.9	10
19	Karagumruk	17	2	3	12	-16	-12.9	9
20	Samsunspor	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.