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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Monza

T T U T U

2–2

Full-time

Lazio

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 41%

32%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

38%

41%

Both score Ø 46%

44%

47%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,74 xG 1,40

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 11. · Lazio 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	34	28	5	1	+63	+44.8	89
2	Milan	34	21	7	6	+25	+14.7	70
3	Juventus	34	18	11	5	+21	+25.0	65
4	Bologna	35	17	13	5	+22	+11.2	64
5	Roma	34	17	8	9	+20	+11.7	59
6	Atalanta	33	17	6	10	+24	+11.5	57
7	Lazio	34	17	4	13	+8	+4.9	55
8	Fiorentina	33	14	8	11	+13	+4.2	50
9	Napoli	34	13	11	10	+9	+21.2	50
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+0	+4.1	47
11	Monza	34	11	11	12	-8	-13.9	44
12	Genoa	34	10	12	12	-2	-4.7	42
13	Lecce	34	8	12	14	-18	-9.2	36
14	Cagliari	34	7	11	16	-23	-10.2	32
15	Verona	34	7	10	17	-14	-13.5	31
16	Frosinone	34	7	10	17	-20	-15.0	31
17	Empoli	34	8	7	19	-24	-16.6	31
18	Udinese	34	4	17	13	-19	-10.9	29
19	Sassuolo	34	6	8	20	-30	-20.5	26
20	Salernitana	34	2	9	23	-47	-39.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+18	+11.6	36
4	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+13	+17.8	36
5	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
6	Milan	16	11	2	3	+17	+8.4	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+7	+8.6	30
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Frosinone	17	7	4	6	+2	-3.2	25
11	Genoa	17	6	6	5	+2	-1.3	24
12	Napoli	17	6	6	5	-1	+12.3	24
13	Cagliari	17	6	6	5	-3	+5.8	24
14	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
15	Monza	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.6	23
16	Verona	16	5	5	6	-3	-6.0	20
17	Sassuolo	17	4	5	8	-10	-8.8	17
18	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.5	16
19	Udinese	17	1	9	7	-8	-2.0	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	14	2	0	+30	+17.2	44
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	17	8	1	8	+1	-3.7	25
6	Bologna	17	5	9	3	+1	+2.1	24
7	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
8	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.8	19
11	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-4	-3.3	18
12	Torino	17	4	5	8	-7	-4.2	17
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.1	15
15	Lecce	17	2	6	9	-12	-9.7	12
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	17	2	3	12	-20	-11.6	9
18	Cagliari	17	1	5	11	-20	-16.0	8
19	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7
20	Frosinone	17	0	6	11	-22	-11.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.