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Championship

Referee: P Bankes

Swansea

S T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,0

This season — Championship · 35/34 matches

Win Ø 42%

31%

53%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

65%

Both score Ø 60%

57%

62%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 17. · Middlesbrough 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	35	22	11	2	+40	77
2	Sheffield United	35	20	7	8	+25	67
3	Middlesbrough	34	18	6	10	+22	60
4	Blackburn	36	18	4	14	+0	58
5	Norwich	35	16	7	12	+12	55
6	Luton	33	15	10	8	+9	55
7	Millwall	35	15	9	11	+7	54
8	West Brom	35	14	9	12	+7	51
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	+3	51
10	Sunderland	34	13	9	12	+7	48
11	Coventry	33	13	9	11	+6	48
12	Bristol City	36	12	12	12	+2	48
13	Preston	35	12	11	12	-8	47
14	Stoke	36	13	7	16	+3	46
15	Hull	35	12	9	14	-8	45
16	Reading	35	13	5	17	-16	44
17	Swansea	35	11	10	14	-5	43
18	Rotherham	35	9	13	13	-7	40
19	Birmingham	35	10	9	16	-8	39
20	QPR	35	10	9	16	-16	39
21	Cardiff	35	10	8	17	-11	38
22	Blackpool	36	7	11	18	-20	32
23	Huddersfield	35	8	8	19	-21	32
24	Wigan	35	7	11	17	-23	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	13	5	0	+27	44
2	Blackburn	17	12	1	4	+10	37
3	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+19	36
4	Middlesbrough	17	10	5	2	+18	35
5	Reading	17	10	3	4	+8	33
6	Millwall	17	9	5	3	+12	32
7	West Brom	18	9	5	4	+10	32
8	Watford	17	8	5	4	+8	29
9	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+6	29
10	Norwich	18	8	4	6	+6	28
11	Coventry	16	8	4	4	+6	28
12	Rotherham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
13	Luton	17	6	7	4	+4	25
14	Hull	18	7	4	7	-3	25
15	Swansea	17	7	3	7	+2	24
16	Sunderland	17	6	5	6	+0	23
17	Cardiff	18	6	5	7	-1	23
18	Stoke	18	6	4	8	+2	22
19	Huddersfield	18	6	4	8	-4	22
20	Birmingham	18	5	5	8	-1	20
21	QPR	17	5	4	8	-7	19
22	Blackpool	17	4	6	7	-4	18
23	Preston	18	4	6	8	-10	18
24	Wigan	18	3	5	10	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+13	33
2	Sheffield United	18	9	4	5	+6	31
3	Luton	16	9	3	4	+5	30
4	Preston	17	8	5	4	+2	29
5	Norwich	17	8	3	6	+6	27
6	Sunderland	17	7	4	6	+7	25
7	Middlesbrough	17	8	1	8	+4	25
8	Stoke	18	7	3	8	+1	24
9	Millwall	18	6	4	8	-5	22
10	Watford	18	5	7	6	-5	22
11	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	-10	21
12	Coventry	17	5	5	7	+0	20
13	Hull	17	5	5	7	-5	20
14	QPR	18	5	5	8	-9	20
15	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-3	19
16	Bristol City	17	4	7	6	-4	19
17	Swansea	18	4	7	7	-7	19
18	Birmingham	17	5	4	8	-7	19
19	Wigan	17	4	6	7	-5	18
20	Cardiff	17	4	3	10	-10	15
21	Rotherham	18	2	8	8	-15	14
22	Blackpool	19	3	5	11	-16	14
23	Reading	18	3	2	13	-24	11
24	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-17	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.