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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Swansea

U U T U T

4–0

Full-time

Watford

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 38%

33%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

54%

42%

Both score Ø 48%

54%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 15. · Watford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	24	14	8	2	+25	50
2	Sheffield United	25	15	5	5	+21	50
3	Blackburn	25	13	0	12	-1	39
4	Watford	24	10	7	7	+6	37
5	Sunderland	24	10	6	8	+9	36
6	Middlesbrough	24	10	6	8	+7	36
7	Millwall	24	10	6	8	+3	36
8	West Brom	25	9	8	8	+7	35
9	Norwich	24	10	5	9	+4	35
10	Luton	23	9	8	6	+4	35
11	QPR	25	10	5	10	-3	35
12	Reading	24	11	2	11	-6	35
13	Preston	25	9	7	9	-3	34
14	Birmingham	24	8	8	8	+1	32
15	Swansea	24	8	8	8	-3	32
16	Coventry	23	8	7	8	+0	31
17	Stoke	24	8	6	10	-4	30
18	Bristol City	25	7	7	11	-3	28
19	Cardiff	25	7	7	11	-8	28
20	Rotherham	25	6	9	10	-8	27
21	Hull	24	7	6	11	-14	27
22	Huddersfield	24	7	4	13	-7	25
23	Blackpool	25	6	7	12	-10	25
24	Wigan	25	6	6	13	-17	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	13	9	4	0	+18	31
2	Reading	12	8	1	3	+6	25
3	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+14	24
4	Millwall	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	Blackburn	12	8	0	4	+6	24
6	Watford	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
8	West Brom	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Norwich	12	5	3	4	+4	18
10	Coventry	11	5	3	3	+4	18
11	Birmingham	12	4	5	3	+4	17
12	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+1	17
13	Huddersfield	13	5	2	6	+0	17
14	QPR	12	5	2	5	-1	17
15	Rotherham	12	4	4	4	+3	16
16	Sunderland	12	4	4	4	+3	16
17	Cardiff	13	4	4	5	-1	16
18	Luton	11	3	6	2	+3	15
19	Bristol City	13	4	3	6	+0	15
20	Hull	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Preston	13	3	4	6	-6	13
22	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-3	12
23	Blackpool	12	3	2	7	-5	11
24	Wigan	13	2	3	8	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	13	8	2	3	+7	26
2	Preston	12	6	3	3	+3	21
3	Sunderland	12	6	2	4	+6	20
4	Luton	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Burnley	11	5	4	2	+7	19
6	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
7	QPR	13	5	3	5	-2	18
8	Watford	12	4	5	3	+1	17
9	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+0	17
10	Middlesbrough	12	5	1	6	+2	16
11	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+2	16
12	Wigan	12	4	3	5	-3	15
13	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
14	Swansea	13	3	6	4	-4	15
15	Blackburn	13	5	0	8	-7	15
16	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-5	14
17	Bristol City	12	3	4	5	-3	13
18	Coventry	12	3	4	5	-4	13
19	Hull	11	3	4	4	-5	13
20	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	12
21	Cardiff	12	3	3	6	-7	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	5	6	-11	11
23	Reading	12	3	1	8	-12	10
24	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.