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Serie B

Referee: Luca Massimi

Palermo

S S U S U

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Palermo Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

21%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

37%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 8

1 Offside 5

18 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Palermo 4. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	20	12	6	2	+20	+3.3	42
2	Venezia	20	12	5	3	+21	+16.9	41
3	Monza	20	11	5	4	+12	+7.9	38
4	Palermo	19	9	7	3	+15	+3.9	34
5	Cesena	20	10	4	6	+5	+3.4	34
6	Modena	20	9	5	6	+11	+5.6	32
7	Catanzaro	20	8	7	5	+3	-2.2	31
8	Juve Stabia	20	7	9	4	+0	+0.7	30
9	Empoli	20	7	6	7	+1	+1.5	27
10	Carrarese	20	6	8	6	-3	-5.5	26
11	Padova	20	6	7	7	-2	-4.0	25
12	Avellino	20	6	7	7	-9	-7.8	25
13	Sudtirol	20	4	10	6	-3	-3.5	22
14	Reggiana	20	5	5	10	-6	-2.6	20
15	Virtus Entella	20	4	8	8	-9	-5.1	20
16	Mantova	20	5	4	11	-11	-3.6	19
17	Sampdoria	20	4	6	10	-8	+1.0	18
18	Spezia	19	4	5	10	-9	+0.6	17
19	Bari	20	3	8	9	-14	-7.3	17
20	Pescara	20	2	8	10	-14	-3.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	10	9	0	1	+18	+8.7	27
2	Monza	10	7	2	1	+9	+5.0	23
3	Palermo	10	6	3	1	+12	+4.5	21
4	Frosinone	9	6	2	1	+13	+2.4	20
5	Juve Stabia	10	5	5	0	+7	+1.4	20
6	Catanzaro	10	5	4	1	+5	+1.6	19
7	Modena	10	5	2	3	+7	-1.2	17
8	Virtus Entella	10	4	5	1	+4	-1.3	17
9	Carrarese	10	4	4	2	+4	+1.3	16
10	Empoli	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.9	15
11	Cesena	9	4	3	2	+4	+4.2	15
12	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.5	15
13	Avellino	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.6	15
14	Bari	10	3	4	3	+0	-4.0	13
15	Reggiana	10	3	3	4	+0	-1.9	12
16	Sudtirol	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
17	Padova	10	2	5	3	-1	-4.1	11
18	Mantova	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.4	11
19	Pescara	11	2	4	5	-3	-0.9	10
20	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	11	6	4	1	+7	+1.0	22
2	Cesena	11	6	1	4	+1	-0.8	19
3	Modena	10	4	3	3	+4	+6.8	15
4	Monza	10	4	3	3	+3	+2.9	15
5	Venezia	10	3	5	2	+3	+8.3	14
6	Padova	10	4	2	4	-1	+0.1	14
7	Palermo	9	3	4	2	+3	-0.6	13
8	Catanzaro	10	3	3	4	-2	-3.8	12
9	Empoli	9	4	0	5	-4	-1.5	12
10	Sudtirol	11	1	8	2	-3	-1.7	11
11	Avellino	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.2	10
12	Carrarese	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
13	Juve Stabia	10	2	4	4	-7	-0.7	10
14	Spezia	9	2	2	5	-3	+2.3	8
15	Reggiana	10	2	2	6	-6	-0.7	8
16	Mantova	10	2	2	6	-6	-5.0	8
17	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	-2.3	4
18	Bari	10	0	4	6	-14	-3.4	4
19	Sampdoria	10	0	3	7	-10	-1.5	3
20	Virtus Entella	10	0	3	7	-13	-3.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.