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Serie B

Ternana

T T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Spal

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ternana Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 35%

20%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

80%

50%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

This season — Serie B · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

8 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 4

4 Corners 5

12 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ternana 15. · Spal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pisa	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Brescia	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Ascoli	6	4	0	2	+2	12
4	Benevento	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Lecce	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Frosinone	6	2	4	0	+4	10
7	Reggina	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Cosenza	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Perugia	6	2	3	1	+3	9
10	Cremonese	5	3	0	2	+2	9
11	Monza	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Cittadella	6	3	0	3	-2	9
13	Parma	6	2	2	2	+2	8
14	Spal	5	2	1	2	+4	7
15	Ternana	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Como	6	0	3	3	-5	3
17	Crotone	6	0	3	3	-6	3
18	Alessandria	6	0	1	5	-8	1
19	Pordenone	6	0	1	5	-13	1
20	Vicenza	5	0	0	5	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pisa	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Cosenza	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Cittadella	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Reggina	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Spal	3	2	1	0	+6	7
6	Benevento	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Monza	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Cremonese	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Brescia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Frosinone	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Ascoli	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Ternana	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Perugia	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Crotone	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Como	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Pordenone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Alessandria	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Vicenza	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brescia	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Ascoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Pisa	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Perugia	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Frosinone	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Lecce	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Parma	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Benevento	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Cremonese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Reggina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Monza	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Como	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Ternana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Alessandria	4	0	1	3	-4	1
16	Cosenza	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Spal	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Vicenza	3	0	0	3	-3	0
19	Cittadella	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Pordenone	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.