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Serie B

Ternana

T T T U

3–1

Full-time

Parma

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ternana Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,2

This season — Serie B · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

3 Corners 2

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ternana 17. · Parma 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pisa	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Ascoli	5	4	0	1	+3	12
3	Brescia	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Benevento	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Cremonese	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Frosinone	5	2	3	0	+4	9
7	Reggina	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Cittadella	5	3	0	2	-1	9
9	Lecce	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Spal	5	2	1	2	+4	7
11	Parma	4	2	1	1	+4	7
12	Cosenza	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Monza	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Perugia	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Crotone	5	0	3	2	-5	3
16	Como	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Ternana	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Pordenone	5	0	1	4	-11	1
19	Vicenza	5	0	0	5	-7	0
20	Alessandria	5	0	0	5	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cittadella	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Pisa	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Spal	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Benevento	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Reggina	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Cosenza	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Brescia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Monza	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Frosinone	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Ascoli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Crotone	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	Perugia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Pordenone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Como	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Alessandria	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Vicenza	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Ternana	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ascoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Brescia	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Pisa	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Frosinone	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Parma	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Perugia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Lecce	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Benevento	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Cremonese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Reggina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Monza	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Como	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Ternana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Cosenza	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Spal	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Vicenza	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Alessandria	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Cittadella	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Pordenone	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.