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2. Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Reichel
Schalke 04
S T T S U
2–1
Full-time
Paderborn
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Schalke 04 Paderborn
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 69%
69%
69%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
38%
46%
Both score Ø 43%
31%
54%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
0,5
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,54 xG 0,72
38% Possession 62%
14 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 3
3 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Schalke 04 2. · Paderborn 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paderborn 13 9 2 2 +8 +2.0 29
2 Schalke 04 13 9 1 3 +9 +2.9 28
3 Elversberg 13 8 2 3 +14 -1.2 26
4 Darmstadt 13 7 4 2 +10 +5.3 25
5 Hannover 13 7 3 3 +6 +1.9 24
6 Kaiserslautern 13 7 2 4 +9 +2.7 23
7 Hertha 13 7 2 4 +6 -1.0 23
8 Karlsruhe 13 6 3 4 +0 -5.1 21
9 Nurnberg 13 5 3 5 -1 +1.5 18
10 Bielefeld 13 5 2 6 +5 +0.6 17
11 Holstein Kiel 13 4 3 6 -2 -3.3 15
12 Preußen Münster 13 4 3 6 -4 -2.3 15
13 Fortuna Dusseldorf 13 4 2 7 -9 -4.4 14
14 Bochum 13 4 1 8 -3 +3.0 13
15 Greuther Furth 13 4 1 8 -14 -2.2 13
16 Dresden 13 2 4 7 -7 -1.1 10
17 Braunschweig 13 3 1 9 -13 +0.2 10
18 Magdeburg 13 2 1 10 -14 +0.4 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Schalke 04 Paderborn
Kenan Karaman ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
10′
12′
🟨 Calvin Brackelmann
38′
L. Curda 0–1
R. Obermair
1–1 K. Karaman
M. Sylla
45′
Half-time 1–1
57′
🟨 Felix Götze
62′
🔁 S. Klaas
↦ F. Bilbija
62′
🔁 S. Michel
↦ C. Brackelmann
Moussa Sylla ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
64′
B. Lasme 🔁
↦ C. Antwi-Adjei
67′
74′
🔁 L. Engelns
↦ S. Castaneda
74′
🔁 N. Batzner
↦ M. Baur
Kenan Karaman 🟨
83′
83′
🟨 Laurin Curda
F. Porath 🔁
↦ M. Wallentowitz
85′
P. Popperl 🔁
↦ R. Schallenberg
85′
2–1 B. Lasme
K. Karaman
86′
88′
🔁 S. Marino
↦ M. Hansen
J. Bachmann 🔁
↦ M. Sylla
89′
F. Sanchez 🔁
↦ V. Becker
89′
Loris Karius 🟨
98′
98′
🟨 Nick Bätzner
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Schalke 04

3-4-2-1
1 L. Karius G
43 M. Ayhan D
25 N. Katic D
4 H. Kurucay D
35 M. Wallentowitz M
23 S. El-Faouzi M
6 R. Schallenberg M
33 V. Becker M
18 C. Antwi-Adjei F
19 K. Karaman F
9 M. Sylla F
Bench (9)
32 L. Podlech
14 J. Bachmann
34 A. Gulasi
37 M. Gruger
11 B. Lasme
41 H. Matriciani
27 F. Porath
46 P. Popperl
2 F. Sanchez

Coach: Miron Muslić

Paderborn

3-4-2-1
41 D. Seimen G
20 F. Gotze D
25 T. Scheller D
4 C. Brackelmann D
22 M. Hansen M
14 M. Baur M
5 S. Castaneda M
23 R. Obermair M
17 L. Curda F
7 F. Bilbija F
27 S. Tigges F
Bench (9)
1 M. Schubert
3 J. Sticker
6 L. Engelns
9 N. Batzner
26 S. Klaas
11 S. Michel
18 M. Worner
28 L. Copado
30 S. Marino

Coach: Ralf Kettemann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,56
U
3,06
B
2,77
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,96
U2,5
1,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Tobias Reichel · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.