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2. Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Hamburg

T S U S U

0–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,2

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 55%

48%

62%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

62%

59%

Both score Ø 57%

62%

52%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

21 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hamburg 4. · Holstein Kiel 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Holstein Kiel	29	18	4	7	+25	58
2	St Pauli	29	16	9	4	+22	57
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	30	16	7	7	+29	55
4	Hamburg	29	14	7	8	+14	49
5	Hannover	29	11	12	6	+15	45
6	Hertha	29	12	8	9	+12	44
7	Karlsruhe	29	11	10	8	+15	43
8	Paderborn	30	12	7	11	-3	43
9	Greuther Furth	30	12	6	12	-3	42
10	Elversberg	30	11	7	12	-8	40
11	Nurnberg	30	10	7	13	-18	37
12	Schalke 04	30	10	6	14	-10	36
13	Braunschweig	30	10	4	16	-8	34
14	Magdeburg	29	8	9	12	-6	33
15	Wehen	30	8	8	14	-9	32
16	Hansa Rostock	29	9	4	16	-21	31
17	Kaiserslautern	30	8	6	16	-13	30
18	Osnabruck	30	5	9	16	-33	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	15	9	5	1	+17	32
2	Hamburg	14	10	0	4	+14	30
3	Greuther Furth	15	9	3	3	+11	30
4	Karlsruhe	15	8	5	2	+17	29
5	Holstein Kiel	15	9	1	5	+9	28
6	Hannover	14	7	6	1	+16	27
7	Schalke 04	15	8	3	4	+9	27
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	8	3	4	+8	27
9	Hertha	15	7	5	3	+19	26
10	Magdeburg	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	Braunschweig	15	6	4	5	+3	22
12	Kaiserslautern	15	6	2	7	-3	20
13	Hansa Rostock	14	6	2	6	-3	20
14	Paderborn	15	5	4	6	-2	19
15	Elversberg	15	5	4	6	-4	19
16	Nurnberg	15	5	4	6	-8	19
17	Wehen	14	4	5	5	-3	17
18	Osnabruck	15	3	5	7	-10	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Holstein Kiel	14	9	3	2	+16	30
2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	8	4	3	+21	28
3	St Pauli	14	7	4	3	+5	25
4	Paderborn	15	7	3	5	-1	24
5	Elversberg	15	6	3	6	-4	21
6	Hamburg	15	4	7	4	+0	19
7	Hannover	15	4	6	5	-1	18
8	Hertha	14	5	3	6	-7	18
9	Nurnberg	15	5	3	7	-10	18
10	Wehen	16	4	3	9	-6	15
11	Karlsruhe	14	3	5	6	-2	14
12	Braunschweig	15	4	0	11	-11	12
13	Greuther Furth	15	3	3	9	-14	12
14	Magdeburg	14	2	5	7	-10	11
15	Hansa Rostock	15	3	2	10	-18	11
16	Kaiserslautern	15	2	4	9	-10	10
17	Osnabruck	15	2	4	9	-23	10
18	Schalke 04	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.