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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Luton

U T T S T

1–5

Full-time

Brentford

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 21%

18%

24%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

70%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

79%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,4

Conceded

2,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,59 xG 3,14

53% Possession 47%

6 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Brentford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	32	22	7	3	+44	+37.5	73
2	Arsenal	32	22	5	5	+49	+41.5	71
3	Liverpool	32	21	8	3	+41	+36.2	71
4	Aston Villa	33	19	6	8	+19	+6.3	63
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Newcastle	32	15	5	12	+17	+7.6	50
7	Man United	32	15	5	12	-1	-12.2	50
8	West Ham	33	13	9	11	-6	-14.9	48
9	Chelsea	31	13	8	10	+9	+14.3	47
10	Brighton	32	11	11	10	+2	+1.5	44
11	Wolves	32	12	7	13	-5	-10.8	43
12	Fulham	33	12	6	15	-2	-9.1	42
13	Bournemouth	32	11	9	12	-10	-1.7	42
14	Everton	32	9	8	15	-16	+0.2	35
15	Crystal Palace	32	8	9	15	-17	-9.2	33
16	Brentford	33	8	8	17	-11	+3.1	32
17	Nott'm Forest	33	7	9	17	-16	-5.0	30
18	Luton	33	6	7	20	-24	-30.9	25
19	Burnley	33	4	8	21	-35	-25.0	20
20	Sheffield United	32	3	7	22	-54	-31.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+23	+23.8	38
4	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
5	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
6	Aston Villa	16	11	2	3	+18	+11.5	35
7	Fulham	16	9	1	6	+13	+3.0	28
8	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+10	+16.8	28
9	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
10	Man United	15	8	2	5	+1	-0.3	26
11	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+1	-5.5	25
12	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+0	-4.4	24
13	Bournemouth	17	6	6	5	-3	+2.5	24
14	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
16	Everton	15	4	4	7	-2	+9.4	16
17	Crystal Palace	15	4	4	7	-3	+1.8	16
18	Luton	16	4	3	9	-3	-3.1	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	16	2	4	10	-30	-12.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	10	3	3	+26	+17.7	33
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+13	+4.6	29
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	16	7	2	7	-7	-9.5	23
8	Chelsea	15	5	4	6	-1	-2.4	19
9	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
10	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
11	Bournemouth	15	5	3	7	-7	-4.3	18
12	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-14	-11.0	17
14	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-6	-11.8	14
15	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
16	Brentford	16	3	2	11	-8	-1.7	11
17	Burnley	16	2	4	10	-15	-20.9	10
18	Nott'm Forest	16	2	4	10	-16	-6.9	10
19	Luton	17	2	4	11	-21	-27.8	10
20	Sheffield United	16	1	3	12	-24	-19.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.