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Serie A
Referee: G Manganiello
Empoli
T T T S T
1–0
Full-time
Napoli
T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
1,8
3,5
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 32%
22%
41%
Points per game
0,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
34%
59%
Both score Ø 45%
31%
59%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,6
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,92 xG 0,63
27% Possession 73%
7 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 8
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Empoli 17. · Napoli 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Inter 32 26 5 1 +60 +43.7 83
2 Milan 32 21 6 5 +26 +15.7 69
3 Juventus 33 18 10 5 +21 +23.8 64
4 Bologna 32 16 11 5 +20 +12.7 59
5 Roma 31 16 7 8 +21 +11.3 55
6 Lazio 33 16 4 13 +7 +4.5 52
7 Atalanta 31 15 6 10 +21 +9.7 51
8 Napoli 32 13 10 9 +10 +20.1 49
9 Torino 32 11 12 9 +2 +4.8 45
10 Fiorentina 31 12 8 11 +7 -0.6 44
11 Monza 32 11 10 11 -7 -13.7 43
12 Genoa 33 9 12 12 -5 -4.7 39
13 Cagliari 33 7 11 15 -20 -10.2 32
14 Lecce 32 7 11 14 -21 -10.8 32
15 Verona 32 6 10 16 -14 -12.2 28
16 Udinese 31 4 16 11 -17 -11.0 28
17 Empoli 32 7 7 18 -23 -15.4 28
18 Frosinone 32 6 9 17 -23 -15.2 27
19 Sassuolo 32 6 8 18 -23 -15.7 26
20 Salernitana 32 2 9 21 -42 -36.8 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,85
U
4,00
B
1,70
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,77
U2,5 ✓
2,08
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

G Manganiello · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.