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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Luton

S U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

9 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

6 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 7. · Derby 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Reading	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
4	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Reading	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.