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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Derby

S S S U T

1–3

Full-time

Brentford

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

1,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,5

This season — Championship · 42/39 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

49%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

49%

Both score Ø 51%

57%

44%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 9. · Brentford 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	42	24	9	9	+34	81
2	West Brom	42	22	14	6	+33	80
3	Fulham	40	21	9	10	+13	72
4	Nott'm Forest	42	18	14	10	+12	68
5	Brentford	39	19	9	11	+35	66
6	Swansea	40	16	15	9	+11	63
7	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+6	63
8	Preston	42	17	10	15	+4	61
9	Derby	42	16	13	13	+1	61
10	Blackburn	42	16	11	15	+4	59
11	Millwall	42	14	17	11	+2	59
12	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	-6	58
13	Reading	42	14	11	17	+5	53
14	QPR	42	15	8	19	-7	53
15	Wigan	42	14	11	17	-7	53
16	Sheffield Weds	42	14	10	18	-8	52
17	Birmingham	42	12	13	17	-15	49
18	Middlesbrough	42	11	14	17	-11	47
19	Huddersfield	43	12	11	20	-16	47
20	Charlton	42	12	10	20	-10	46
21	Stoke	42	13	7	22	-12	46
22	Hull	42	12	9	21	-17	45
23	Luton	43	12	8	23	-30	44
24	Barnsley	42	10	12	20	-21	42

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	21	13	5	3	+21	44
2	Derby	21	11	8	2	+16	41
3	Fulham	21	13	2	6	+10	41
4	Brentford	19	11	5	3	+23	38
5	West Brom	21	10	8	3	+17	38
6	Preston	21	11	3	7	+8	36
7	Cardiff	20	9	8	3	+10	35
8	Blackburn	21	9	8	4	+8	35
9	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+3	34
10	Wigan	21	9	6	6	+2	33
11	Swansea	20	9	5	6	+7	32
12	Millwall	21	8	8	5	+4	32
13	Stoke	21	9	3	9	+7	30
14	QPR	21	8	5	8	+2	29
15	Charlton	21	8	5	8	+2	29
16	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
17	Luton	21	7	6	8	-5	27
18	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	-5	27
19	Sheffield Weds	21	7	6	8	-10	27
20	Barnsley	21	6	8	7	-5	26
21	Middlesbrough	21	6	8	7	-5	26
22	Reading	21	7	4	10	-4	25
23	Hull	21	7	3	11	-6	24
24	Birmingham	21	6	6	9	-7	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	21	12	6	3	+16	42
2	Leeds	21	11	4	6	+13	37
3	Nott'm Forest	21	8	10	3	+9	34
4	Swansea	20	7	10	3	+4	31
5	Fulham	19	8	7	4	+3	31
6	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
7	Brentford	20	8	4	8	+12	28
8	Reading	21	7	7	7	+9	28
9	Cardiff	21	7	7	7	-4	28
10	Millwall	21	6	9	6	-2	27
11	Sheffield Weds	21	7	4	10	+2	25
12	Preston	21	6	7	8	-4	25
13	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-8	25
14	Blackburn	21	7	3	11	-4	24
15	QPR	21	7	3	11	-9	24
16	Middlesbrough	21	5	6	10	-6	21
17	Hull	21	5	6	10	-11	21
18	Wigan	21	5	5	11	-9	20
19	Huddersfield	21	5	5	11	-11	20
20	Derby	21	5	5	11	-15	20
21	Charlton	21	4	5	12	-12	17
22	Luton	22	5	2	15	-25	17
23	Barnsley	21	4	4	13	-16	16
24	Stoke	21	4	4	13	-19	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.