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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Luton

U T T T T

3–2

Full-time

Derby

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 27%

21%

32%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

86%

43%

Both score Ø 59%

68%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 9

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Luton 24. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	28	14	11	3	+19	53
2	Leeds	28	15	7	6	+19	52
3	Fulham	27	14	6	7	+13	48
4	Nott'm Forest	28	13	9	6	+11	48
5	Preston	29	13	7	9	+8	46
6	Swansea	27	12	9	6	+6	45
7	Millwall	28	11	11	6	+4	44
8	Bristol City	28	12	8	8	+2	44
9	Sheffield Weds	28	12	6	10	+8	42
10	Blackburn	28	11	7	10	+5	40
11	Hull	28	11	6	11	+4	39
12	Brentford	25	11	5	9	+17	38
13	Cardiff	27	9	11	7	-2	38
14	QPR	28	11	5	12	-5	38
15	Reading	28	10	7	11	+3	37
16	Derby	28	9	10	9	-7	37
17	Middlesbrough	29	8	11	10	-7	35
18	Birmingham	29	9	7	13	-11	34
19	Stoke	29	9	4	16	-6	31
20	Charlton	29	7	9	13	-4	30
21	Huddersfield	28	7	8	13	-13	29
22	Barnsley	29	5	9	15	-19	24
23	Wigan	28	5	8	15	-18	23
24	Luton	28	6	3	19	-27	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	15	10	2	3	+13	32
2	Fulham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Derby	15	8	5	2	+8	29
4	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+9	28
5	Leeds	13	7	4	2	+9	25
6	Cardiff	12	7	4	1	+9	25
7	West Brom	14	6	6	2	+10	24
8	Swansea	14	7	3	4	+6	24
9	Blackburn	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Nott'm Forest	14	7	3	4	+3	24
11	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+1	24
12	QPR	15	6	4	5	+2	22
13	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+2	22
14	Sheffield Weds	14	6	4	4	-1	22
15	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+13	21
16	Hull	14	6	2	6	+4	20
17	Charlton	15	5	5	5	+2	20
18	Reading	13	6	1	6	+2	19
19	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	18
20	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-1	18
21	Barnsley	15	4	6	5	-5	18
22	Huddersfield	15	4	5	6	-5	17
23	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-5	16
24	Luton	13	4	3	6	-2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	14	8	5	1	+9	29
2	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Nott'm Forest	14	6	6	2	+8	24
4	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+0	22
5	Swansea	13	5	6	2	+0	21
6	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	+9	20
7	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+3	19
8	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
9	Reading	15	4	6	5	+1	18
10	Brentford	14	5	2	7	+4	17
11	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	+0	16
12	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-5	16
13	QPR	13	5	1	7	-7	16
14	Birmingham	15	4	4	7	-10	16
15	Preston	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Stoke	14	4	1	9	-5	13
17	Cardiff	15	2	7	6	-11	13
18	Huddersfield	13	3	3	7	-8	12
19	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
20	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-6	10
21	Derby	13	1	5	7	-15	8
22	Wigan	15	1	4	10	-13	7
23	Barnsley	14	1	3	10	-14	6
24	Luton	15	2	0	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.