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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Derby

U S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Swansea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	11	4	4	+11	37
2	Leeds	19	10	6	3	+13	36
3	Middlesbrough	19	9	8	2	+12	35
4	West Brom	19	10	4	5	+14	34
5	Sheffield United	20	10	4	6	+8	34
6	Nott'm Forest	19	7	10	2	+9	31
7	Derby	18	9	4	5	+8	31
8	Aston Villa	19	7	7	5	+6	28
9	QPR	19	8	4	7	-4	28
10	Birmingham	19	6	9	4	+3	27
11	Swansea	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Stoke	19	6	8	5	+0	26
13	Blackburn	19	6	8	5	-6	26
14	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+0	25
15	Wigan	19	7	3	9	-5	24
16	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-9	23
17	Preston	19	5	7	7	-1	22
18	Brentford	19	5	6	8	+2	21
19	Rotherham	19	4	8	7	-9	20
20	Reading	19	4	5	10	-6	17
21	Millwall	19	4	5	10	-9	17
22	Hull	19	4	5	10	-10	17
23	Bolton	19	4	5	10	-13	17
24	Ipswich	19	1	8	10	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	3	1	+11	21
2	Wigan	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
4	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Sheffield United	10	5	3	2	+6	18
7	Norwich	9	6	0	3	+2	18
8	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+8	17
9	Derby	8	5	2	1	+6	17
10	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
11	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
12	QPR	9	5	1	3	+3	16
13	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
14	Birmingham	9	3	6	0	+5	15
15	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+2	15
16	Stoke	10	4	3	3	+1	15
17	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
18	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+1	14
19	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
20	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
21	Reading	9	3	1	5	+1	10
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	9	2	1	6	-8	7
24	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
3	Sheffield United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
5	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Derby	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Blackburn	10	3	3	4	-7	12
12	QPR	10	3	3	4	-7	12
13	Stoke	9	2	5	2	-1	11
14	Bolton	10	2	4	4	-5	10
15	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
16	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
17	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Preston	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Ipswich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	9	1	0	8	-11	3
23	Rotherham	9	0	3	6	-12	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.