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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Swansea

S T S S U

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Championship · 44/41 matches

Win Ø 44%

41%

46%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

59%

46%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 11. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	45	26	13	6	+35	91
2	Sheffield United	45	26	10	9	+37	88
3	Leeds	43	23	8	12	+19	77
4	West Brom	43	22	10	11	+25	76
5	Aston Villa	42	19	15	8	+20	72
6	Derby	41	19	13	9	+22	70
7	Middlesbrough	45	19	13	13	+7	70
8	Bristol City	45	19	12	14	+6	69
9	Sheffield Weds	45	16	16	13	-1	64
10	Nott'm Forest	45	16	15	14	+6	63
11	Swansea	44	18	9	17	+3	63
12	Brentford	45	16	13	16	+11	61
13	Preston	45	16	13	16	+3	61
14	Hull	45	17	10	18	-2	61
15	Birmingham	45	14	18	13	+6	60
16	Blackburn	45	16	11	18	-5	59
17	Stoke	45	11	21	13	-7	54
18	Wigan	45	12	13	20	-14	49
19	QPR	45	13	9	23	-19	48
20	Reading	45	10	16	19	-17	46
21	Millwall	45	10	14	21	-15	44
22	Rotherham	45	8	16	21	-30	40
23	Bolton	45	8	8	29	-48	32
24	Ipswich	45	4	16	25	-42	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	23	15	4	4	+25	49
2	Norwich	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Brentford	22	13	4	5	+24	43
4	Derby	21	12	7	2	+21	43
5	Leeds	22	13	4	5	+15	43
6	West Brom	22	12	6	4	+22	42
7	Swansea	22	12	5	5	+14	41
8	Nott'm Forest	22	12	4	6	+12	40
9	Aston Villa	20	10	8	2	+13	38
10	Hull	22	11	5	6	+13	38
11	Sheffield Weds	22	10	8	4	+8	38
12	Wigan	22	10	8	4	+8	38
13	Blackburn	22	10	6	6	+11	36
14	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
15	Preston	23	8	10	5	+11	34
16	Birmingham	23	7	11	5	+7	32
17	Bristol City	23	8	8	7	+2	32
18	Stoke	22	8	8	6	+2	32
19	QPR	23	9	3	11	+2	30
20	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-1	30
21	Reading	22	8	5	9	-2	29
22	Rotherham	22	7	8	7	-5	29
23	Ipswich	22	2	11	9	-10	17
24	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-22	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	11	9	2	+18	42
2	Sheffield United	22	11	6	5	+12	39
3	Bristol City	22	11	4	7	+4	37
4	Aston Villa	22	9	7	6	+7	34
5	Leeds	21	10	4	7	+4	34
6	West Brom	21	10	4	7	+3	34
7	Middlesbrough	22	9	7	6	+1	34
8	Birmingham	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Derby	20	7	6	7	+1	27
10	Preston	22	8	3	11	-8	27
11	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-9	26
12	Nott'm Forest	23	4	11	8	-6	23
13	Hull	23	6	5	12	-15	23
14	Blackburn	23	6	5	12	-16	23
15	Stoke	23	3	13	7	-9	22
16	Swansea	22	6	4	12	-11	22
17	Brentford	23	3	9	11	-13	18
18	QPR	22	4	6	12	-21	18
19	Reading	23	2	11	10	-15	17
20	Bolton	22	4	4	14	-26	16
21	Millwall	22	3	5	14	-14	14
22	Wigan	23	2	5	16	-22	11
23	Rotherham	23	1	8	14	-25	11
24	Ipswich	23	2	5	16	-32	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.