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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Derby

T U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Hull

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 36%

30%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

12 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Hull 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	27	14	11	2	+20	53
2	Leeds	28	15	7	6	+19	52
3	Fulham	26	14	5	7	+13	47
4	Nott'm Forest	26	12	8	6	+9	44
5	Sheffield Weds	27	12	6	9	+13	42
6	Swansea	25	11	9	5	+7	42
7	Millwall	27	10	11	6	+2	41
8	Bristol City	27	11	8	8	+1	41
9	Preston	27	11	7	9	+4	40
10	Hull	27	11	6	10	+5	39
11	QPR	28	11	5	12	-5	38
12	Brentford	24	11	4	9	+17	37
13	Blackburn	27	10	7	10	+0	37
14	Cardiff	26	9	10	7	-2	37
15	Reading	26	10	6	10	+5	36
16	Middlesbrough	28	8	10	10	-7	34
17	Derby	27	8	10	9	-8	34
18	Birmingham	27	9	5	13	-11	32
19	Charlton	27	7	8	12	-3	29
20	Huddersfield	27	7	7	13	-13	28
21	Stoke	27	7	4	16	-9	25
22	Barnsley	27	5	9	13	-15	24
23	Wigan	27	5	8	14	-17	23
24	Luton	27	6	3	18	-25	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	14	9	2	3	+12	29
2	Fulham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Derby	14	7	5	2	+7	26
4	Leeds	13	7	4	2	+9	25
5	Cardiff	12	7	4	1	+9	25
6	Millwall	13	7	4	2	+7	25
7	West Brom	13	6	6	1	+11	24
8	Blackburn	14	6	6	2	+5	24
9	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+1	23
10	Sheffield Weds	13	6	4	3	+4	22
11	QPR	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+13	21
13	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+5	21
14	Hull	14	6	2	6	+4	20
15	Nott'm Forest	12	6	2	4	+1	20
16	Charlton	14	5	4	5	+2	19
17	Reading	13	6	1	6	+2	19
18	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+1	19
19	Barnsley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
20	Birmingham	13	5	2	6	-1	17
21	Huddersfield	14	4	4	6	-5	16
22	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-5	16
23	Luton	13	4	3	6	-2	15
24	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	14	8	5	1	+9	29
2	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Nott'm Forest	14	6	6	2	+8	24
4	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+0	22
5	Swansea	12	5	6	1	+2	21
6	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	+9	20
7	Hull	13	5	4	4	+1	19
8	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Reading	13	4	5	4	+3	17
10	Brentford	13	5	1	7	+4	16
11	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-5	16
12	QPR	13	5	1	7	-7	16
13	Birmingham	14	4	3	7	-10	15
14	Blackburn	13	4	1	8	-5	13
15	Huddersfield	13	3	3	7	-8	12
16	Cardiff	14	2	6	6	-11	12
17	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
18	Preston	13	2	5	6	-8	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-5	10
20	Stoke	13	3	1	9	-6	10
21	Derby	13	1	5	7	-15	8
22	Wigan	14	1	4	9	-12	7
23	Barnsley	13	1	3	9	-13	6
24	Luton	14	2	0	12	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.