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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Leicester

S U T S U

3–1

Full-time

Liverpool

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 53%

57%

48%

Points per game

1,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

52%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

43%

61%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 12

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 3. · Liverpool 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	22	15	5	2	+29	50
2	Man United	23	13	6	4	+19	45
3	Leicester	23	13	4	6	+14	43
4	Liverpool	23	11	7	5	+15	40
5	Chelsea	23	11	6	6	+14	39
6	West Ham	23	11	6	6	+6	39
7	Everton	21	11	4	6	+6	37
8	Tottenham	22	10	6	6	+14	36
9	Aston Villa	21	11	2	8	+12	35
10	Leeds	22	10	2	10	+0	32
11	Arsenal	23	9	4	10	+4	31
12	Southampton	22	8	5	9	-8	29
13	Crystal Palace	23	8	5	10	-12	29
14	Wolves	23	7	6	10	-8	27
15	Brighton	23	5	10	8	-5	25
16	Newcastle	23	7	4	12	-13	25
17	Burnley	22	6	5	11	-15	23
18	Fulham	22	2	9	11	-14	15
19	West Brom	23	2	6	15	-36	12
20	Sheffield United	23	3	2	18	-22	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Liverpool	12	7	2	3	+8	23
3	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+10	19
4	Man United	12	5	3	4	+7	18
5	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
6	West Ham	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Southampton	11	5	1	5	+2	16
9	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
10	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+0	16
11	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-4	15
13	Everton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	Burnley	11	4	2	5	-4	14
16	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
17	Brighton	11	1	6	4	-4	9
18	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-10	7
20	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	12	8	3	1	+13	27
2	Man United	11	8	3	0	+12	27
3	Man City	11	7	3	1	+14	24
4	Everton	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Chelsea	12	6	2	4	+4	20
7	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+7	19
8	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
9	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+0	18
10	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+7	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	2	6	-8	14
14	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-10	13
15	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Fulham	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-12	6
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.