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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Cardiff

S T S U U

1–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 31%

33%

29%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

67%

29%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 15. · Middlesbrough 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+9	17
2	Swansea	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Bristol City	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Preston	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+3	13
7	QPR	7	4	1	2	+1	13
8	Birmingham	7	4	1	2	-1	13
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Sheffield Weds	7	4	0	3	+4	12
11	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+5	10
12	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Middlesbrough	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Millwall	7	2	3	2	-4	9
15	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
16	Derby	8	1	5	2	-3	8
17	Luton	7	2	1	4	-1	7
18	Reading	7	2	1	4	-1	7
19	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
20	Hull	7	1	3	3	-3	6
21	Wigan	7	1	2	4	-7	5
22	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-7	5
23	Huddersfield	7	0	1	6	-8	1
24	Stoke	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Swansea	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+2	4
15	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	4
16	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Wigan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Barnsley	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Huddersfield	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Bristol City	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Nott'm Forest	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Sheffield Weds	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Birmingham	4	2	0	2	-4	6
10	Derby	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Reading	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Luton	4	1	0	3	-1	3
14	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Hull	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Wigan	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.