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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Roma

T S S S U

1–1

Full-time

Milan

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,0

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 43%

43%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Milan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	22	19	3	0	+31	60
2	Napoli	22	16	3	3	+24	51
3	Inter	22	12	4	6	+15	40
4	Milan	21	9	8	4	+8	35
5	Roma	21	9	7	5	+11	34
6	Sampdoria	22	9	6	7	+10	33
7	Atalanta	21	9	5	7	+17	32
8	Lazio	21	9	5	7	+5	32
9	Fiorentina	22	7	10	5	+8	31
10	Torino	22	7	10	5	+5	31
11	Sassuolo	22	7	9	6	+1	30
12	Parma	22	8	5	9	-6	29
13	Genoa	22	6	6	10	-10	24
14	Spal	22	5	7	10	-11	22
15	Cagliari	21	4	9	8	-11	21
16	Udinese	22	4	7	11	-12	19
17	Empoli	22	4	6	12	-17	18
18	Bologna	22	3	8	11	-17	17
19	Frosinone	21	2	7	12	-26	13
20	Chievo	22	1	9	12	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Juventus	12	10	2	0	+17	32
3	Inter	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Roma	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Milan	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Sampdoria	10	6	2	2	+11	20
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+9	18
8	Lazio	11	5	3	3	+5	18
9	Sassuolo	11	4	5	2	+1	17
10	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+1	17
11	Torino	10	5	1	4	+2	16
12	Atalanta	10	4	3	3	+8	15
13	Cagliari	10	3	6	1	+3	15
14	Empoli	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Parma	11	3	4	4	-2	13
16	Spal	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-8	9
19	Chievo	11	1	4	6	-10	7
20	Frosinone	10	0	5	5	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Napoli	10	6	1	3	+3	19
3	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+9	17
4	Inter	11	5	2	4	+3	17
5	Parma	11	5	1	5	-4	16
6	Torino	12	2	9	1	+3	15
7	Milan	10	3	5	2	+4	14
8	Lazio	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Roma	11	3	4	4	+0	13
10	Sassuolo	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-1	13
12	Fiorentina	12	2	7	3	-1	13
13	Spal	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Bologna	12	1	5	6	-9	8
15	Frosinone	11	2	2	7	-11	8
16	Udinese	10	1	4	5	-6	7
17	Genoa	10	2	1	7	-11	7
18	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-14	6
19	Chievo	11	0	5	6	-15	5
20	Empoli	10	0	4	6	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.