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Serie A

Referee: Federico La Penna

Milan

U S S U U

3–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

41%

18%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

41%

36%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

45%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

19 Shots 9

11 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Cagliari 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	23	20	3	0	+34	63
2	Napoli	23	16	4	3	+24	52
3	Inter	23	13	4	6	+16	43
4	Atalanta	23	11	5	7	+19	38
5	Roma	23	10	8	5	+14	38
6	Lazio	23	11	5	7	+7	38
7	Milan	22	9	9	4	+8	36
8	Torino	23	8	10	5	+6	34
9	Sampdoria	23	9	6	8	+9	33
10	Fiorentina	23	7	11	5	+8	32
11	Sassuolo	23	7	9	7	-2	30
12	Parma	23	8	5	10	-7	29
13	Genoa	23	6	7	10	-10	25
14	Spal	23	5	7	11	-12	22
15	Cagliari	22	4	9	9	-12	21
16	Udinese	23	4	7	12	-13	19
17	Bologna	23	3	9	11	-17	18
18	Empoli	23	4	6	13	-18	18
19	Frosinone	23	3	7	13	-26	16
20	Chievo	23	1	9	13	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Juventus	12	10	2	0	+17	32
3	Inter	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+11	22
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+6	21
6	Milan	11	6	3	2	+4	21
7	Sampdoria	11	6	2	3	+10	20
8	Fiorentina	11	5	4	2	+9	19
9	Torino	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+9	18
11	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+1	17
12	Sassuolo	12	4	5	3	-2	17
13	Cagliari	11	3	6	2	+2	15
14	Empoli	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Parma	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Spal	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Bologna	11	2	4	5	-8	10
19	Chievo	12	1	4	7	-13	7
20	Frosinone	11	0	5	6	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+10	20
3	Inter	12	6	2	4	+4	20
4	Napoli	11	6	2	3	+3	20
5	Lazio	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Roma	12	4	4	4	+3	16
7	Parma	11	5	1	5	-4	16
8	Milan	11	3	6	2	+4	15
9	Torino	12	2	9	1	+3	15
10	Sassuolo	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-1	13
12	Fiorentina	12	2	7	3	-1	13
13	Frosinone	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Spal	12	3	1	8	-9	10
15	Bologna	12	1	5	6	-9	8
16	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Udinese	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-14	6
19	Chievo	11	0	5	6	-15	5
20	Empoli	11	0	4	7	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.