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Serie A

Referee: Fabrizio Pasqua

Atalanta

S S U S S

1–3

Full-time

Milan

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,5

1,7

Scored

3,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

48%

43%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

70%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Milan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	24	21	3	0	+37	66
2	Napoli	23	16	4	3	+24	52
3	Inter	23	13	4	6	+16	43
4	Milan	23	10	9	4	+11	39
5	Atalanta	23	11	5	7	+19	38
6	Roma	23	10	8	5	+14	38
7	Lazio	23	11	5	7	+7	38
8	Torino	23	8	10	5	+6	34
9	Sampdoria	23	9	6	8	+9	33
10	Fiorentina	23	7	11	5	+8	32
11	Sassuolo	23	7	9	7	-2	30
12	Parma	24	8	5	11	-8	29
13	Genoa	23	6	7	10	-10	25
14	Cagliari	24	5	9	10	-14	24
15	Spal	23	5	7	11	-12	22
16	Udinese	23	4	7	12	-13	19
17	Bologna	23	3	9	11	-17	18
18	Empoli	23	4	6	13	-18	18
19	Frosinone	24	3	7	14	-29	16
20	Chievo	23	1	9	13	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	2	0	+20	35
2	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Inter	11	7	2	2	+12	23
5	Roma	11	6	4	1	+11	22
6	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+6	21
7	Sampdoria	11	6	2	3	+10	20
8	Fiorentina	11	5	4	2	+9	19
9	Torino	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+9	18
11	Cagliari	12	4	6	2	+3	18
12	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Sassuolo	12	4	5	3	-2	17
14	Empoli	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Parma	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Spal	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Bologna	11	2	4	5	-8	10
19	Chievo	12	1	4	7	-13	7
20	Frosinone	11	0	5	6	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+10	20
3	Inter	12	6	2	4	+4	20
4	Napoli	11	6	2	3	+3	20
5	Lazio	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Roma	12	4	4	4	+3	16
7	Parma	12	5	1	6	-5	16
8	Milan	11	3	6	2	+4	15
9	Torino	12	2	9	1	+3	15
10	Sassuolo	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-1	13
12	Fiorentina	12	2	7	3	-1	13
13	Frosinone	13	3	2	8	-13	11
14	Spal	12	3	1	8	-9	10
15	Bologna	12	1	5	6	-9	8
16	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Udinese	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Cagliari	12	1	3	8	-17	6
19	Chievo	11	0	5	6	-15	5
20	Empoli	11	0	4	7	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.