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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Alaves

T T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 30%

60%

Average goals

1,6

2,8

Scored

0,0

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 13

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 19. · Real Madrid 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Ath Madrid	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Sevilla	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Valencia	5	2	3	0	+6	9
5	Levante	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Sociedad	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Betis	5	3	0	2	-1	9
8	Real Madrid	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Villarreal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Leganes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Las Palmas	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Eibar	5	2	0	3	-7	6
14	Getafe	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Girona	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Espanol	5	1	2	2	-5	5
17	Celta	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	La Coruna	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Alaves	5	0	0	5	-8	0
20	Malaga	5	0	0	5	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Levante	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Valencia	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sevilla	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Girona	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Leganes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Sociedad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Las Palmas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
16	La Coruna	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Real Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Alaves	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+5	8
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sociedad	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Las Palmas	3	1	0	2	+0	3
8	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Betis	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Eibar	3	1	0	2	-7	3
13	Valencia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Espanol	3	0	2	1	-5	2
15	Levante	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	La Coruna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Girona	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Celta	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Malaga	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.