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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Alaves

T S T U T

1–4

Full-time

Real Madrid

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

22%

67%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

67%

78%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 13. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+15	21
2	Sevilla	10	6	3	1	+5	21
3	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+17	19
4	Villarreal	9	5	4	0	+11	19
5	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+17	18
6	Sociedad	10	5	1	4	+4	16
7	Ath Bilbao	9	5	0	4	+2	15
8	Celta	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Las Palmas	9	3	3	3	+2	12
10	Malaga	9	3	3	3	+2	12
11	Eibar	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Betis	9	3	2	4	-8	11
13	Alaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Leganes	10	3	1	6	-10	10
15	Valencia	9	3	0	6	-5	9
16	Sp Gijon	10	2	3	5	-11	9
17	Espanol	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	La Coruna	9	2	2	5	-8	8
19	Osasuna	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Granada	9	0	3	6	-15	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	5	5	0	0	+6	15
2	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Real Madrid	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+12	10
5	Sociedad	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Malaga	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Ath Bilbao	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Celta	5	3	0	2	+0	9
9	Las Palmas	4	2	2	0	+5	8
10	Barcelona	4	2	1	1	+7	7
11	Eibar	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Sp Gijon	5	2	1	2	-4	7
13	Alaves	4	1	3	0	+2	6
14	La Coruna	4	2	0	2	+0	6
15	Betis	4	1	2	1	-4	5
16	Espanol	5	0	3	2	-4	3
17	Valencia	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Granada	5	0	2	3	-3	2
19	Osasuna	5	0	2	3	-4	2
20	Leganes	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+10	10
3	Leganes	5	3	0	2	-2	9
4	Ath Madrid	5	2	2	1	+5	8
5	Villarreal	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Sociedad	5	2	0	3	+0	6
7	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Sevilla	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Ath Bilbao	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Betis	5	2	0	3	-4	6
11	Eibar	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Espanol	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Las Palmas	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Osasuna	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Alaves	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Celta	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Malaga	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Sp Gijon	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	La Coruna	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.