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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Mainz
T T S T T
1–0
Full-time
Hertha
S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hertha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
20%
40%
Points per game
0,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%
8 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 1
20 Free kicks against 25
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Mainz 15. · Hertha 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 +13 13
2 Bayern Munich 6 4 1 1 +9 13
3 Hoffenheim 5 3 2 0 +4 11
4 Hannover 5 3 2 0 +4 11
5 Augsburg 5 3 1 1 +4 10
6 Schalke 04 5 3 0 2 +1 9
7 M'gladbach 5 2 2 1 +2 8
8 Hertha 5 2 2 1 +1 8
9 RB Leipzig 5 2 1 2 +2 7
10 Ein Frankfurt 5 2 1 2 +0 7
11 Wolfsburg 6 1 3 2 -3 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 -4 6
13 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 -4 6
14 Leverkusen 5 1 1 3 -1 4
15 Mainz 5 1 0 4 -5 3
16 Freiburg 5 0 3 2 -7 3
17 Werder Bremen 5 0 2 3 -4 2
18 FC Koln 5 0 0 5 -12 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mainz Hertha
Pablo De Blasis 🟨
11′
19′
🟨 Sebastian Langkamp
Half-time 0–0
Yoshinori Muto 🟨
53′
53′
🟨 Karim Rekik
1–0 P. De Blasis
54′
L. Öztunali 🔁
↦ A. Maxim
59′
60′
🔁 V. Darida
↦ P. Skjelbred
S. Serdar 🔁
↦ F. Frei
69′
72′
🔁 A. Esswein
↦ M. Leckie
72′
🔁 V. Stocker
↦ O. Duda
V. Fischer 🔁
↦ Y. Muto
87′
89′
🟥 Vedad Ibišević
Levin Öztunali 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Marvin Plattenhardt
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Mainz

3-4-2-1
1 R. Adler G
18 D. Brosinski D
2 G. Donati D
16 S. Bell D
4 A. Diallo D
20 F. Frei M
6 D. Latza M
10 A. Maxim M
25 J. Gbamin M
32 P. De Blasis M
9 Y. Muto F
Bench (7)
8 L. Öztunali
23 S. Serdar
14 V. Fischer
3 L. Balogun
7 R. Quaison
19 Kenan
27 R. Zentner

Coach: S. Schwarz

Hertha

4-2-3-1
22 R. Jarstein G
15 S. Langkamp D
21 M. Plattenhardt D
4 K. Rekik D
8 S. Kalou M
3 P. Skjelbred M
28 F. Lustenberger M
11 M. Leckie M
23 M. Weiser D
10 O. Duda M
19 V. Ibišević F
Bench (7)
6 V. Darida
7 A. Esswein
14 V. Stocker
1 T. Kraft
2 P. Pekarík
5 N. Stark
24 G. Haraguchi

Coach: P. Dárdai

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tobias Stieler · 91 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.