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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Aston Villa

T S U U S

2–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 7/8 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

57%

63%

Both score Ø 60%

57%

63%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 16. · Nott'm Forest 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	9	6	2	1	+12	20
2	Wolves	9	6	2	1	+6	20
3	Cardiff	9	6	2	1	+6	20
4	Preston	9	4	4	1	+6	16
5	Ipswich	8	5	0	3	+3	15
6	Sheffield United	8	5	0	3	+2	15
7	Bristol City	9	3	5	1	+5	14
8	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Sheffield Weds	8	3	4	1	+3	13
10	QPR	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Nott'm Forest	8	4	0	4	-2	12
12	Norwich	9	3	3	3	-4	12
13	Fulham	9	2	5	2	+1	11
14	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
15	Millwall	9	2	4	3	+2	10
16	Aston Villa	7	2	3	2	+1	9
17	Hull	9	2	3	4	-1	9
18	Reading	8	2	3	3	-1	9
19	Burton Albion	9	2	3	4	-9	9
20	Brentford	9	1	4	4	-2	7
21	Barnsley	8	2	1	5	-4	7
22	Sunderland	9	1	3	5	-6	6
23	Birmingham	9	1	2	6	-8	5
24	Bolton	9	0	2	7	-15	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+8	11
2	Preston	5	3	2	0	+5	11
3	QPR	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Cardiff	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+4	10
6	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Sheffield United	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	9
9	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Hull	4	2	1	1	+6	7
13	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+4	7
14	Derby	4	2	1	1	+4	7
15	Burton Albion	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+0	6
17	Fulham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
18	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
20	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Bolton	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+0	10
3	Leeds	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Bristol City	5	1	3	1	+0	6
6	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Preston	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Reading	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Derby	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	Bolton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Hull	5	0	2	3	-7	2
21	Burton Albion	5	0	2	3	-10	2
22	QPR	4	0	1	3	-4	1
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Birmingham	5	0	1	4	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.