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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Real Madrid

S U S S S

3–0

Full-time

Alaves

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,2

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 55%

74%

36%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

81%

43%

Both score Ø 62%

74%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,6

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Alaves 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	27	20	5	2	+43	65
2	Barcelona	28	19	6	3	+56	63
3	Ath Madrid	29	17	7	5	+31	58
4	Sevilla	29	17	7	5	+18	58
5	Sociedad	29	15	4	10	+3	49
6	Villarreal	29	13	9	7	+18	48
7	Ath Bilbao	29	14	5	10	+4	47
8	Eibar	29	12	8	9	+6	44
9	Espanol	29	11	10	8	+2	43
10	Alaves	28	10	10	8	-4	40
11	Celta	27	11	5	11	-5	38
12	Las Palmas	28	9	8	11	-1	35
13	Betis	29	8	7	14	-14	31
14	Valencia	28	8	6	14	-13	30
15	La Coruna	28	6	9	13	-12	27
16	Malaga	29	6	9	14	-14	27
17	Leganes	29	6	9	14	-19	27
18	Sp Gijon	29	5	7	17	-26	22
19	Granada	28	4	7	17	-33	19
20	Osasuna	29	1	8	20	-40	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Barcelona	14	10	3	1	+32	33
3	Sevilla	14	10	3	1	+13	33
4	Ath Bilbao	15	10	3	2	+11	33
5	Ath Madrid	14	10	2	2	+20	32
6	Las Palmas	15	8	5	2	+13	29
7	Villarreal	15	8	3	4	+12	27
8	Eibar	15	8	3	4	+6	27
9	Espanol	15	7	5	3	+8	26
10	Celta	13	8	1	4	+5	25
11	Sociedad	15	7	4	4	+2	25
12	Betis	15	5	6	4	+0	21
13	Malaga	14	6	2	6	+0	20
14	La Coruna	14	5	4	5	+4	19
15	Alaves	14	4	7	3	-5	19
16	Valencia	13	5	3	5	-4	18
17	Granada	13	4	4	5	+0	16
18	Leganes	14	3	5	6	-5	14
19	Sp Gijon	14	4	2	8	-11	14
20	Osasuna	15	0	5	10	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+24	30
2	Real Madrid	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Ath Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	26
4	Sevilla	15	7	4	4	+5	25
5	Sociedad	14	8	0	6	+1	24
6	Villarreal	14	5	6	3	+6	21
7	Alaves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Eibar	14	4	5	5	+0	17
9	Espanol	14	4	5	5	-6	17
10	Ath Bilbao	14	4	2	8	-7	14
11	Celta	14	3	4	7	-10	13
12	Leganes	15	3	4	8	-14	13
13	Valencia	15	3	3	9	-9	12
14	Betis	14	3	1	10	-14	10
15	Sp Gijon	15	1	5	9	-15	8
16	La Coruna	14	1	5	8	-16	8
17	Malaga	15	0	7	8	-14	7
18	Las Palmas	13	1	3	9	-14	6
19	Osasuna	14	1	3	10	-22	6
20	Granada	15	0	3	12	-33	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.