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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Spal

U S T T T

2–3

Full-time

Napoli

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 60%

20%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

20%

100%

Both score Ø 44%

20%

67%

Average goals

2,2

4,7

Scored

0,6

3,8

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+3,0

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

20%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

20%

100%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,2

4,4

Scored

0,6

3,8

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+3,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

6 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 12

2 Blocked shots 5

9 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 14. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+16	15
2	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Inter	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Roma	5	4	0	1	+8	12
5	Milan	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Torino	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Sampdoria	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Fiorentina	5	2	0	3	+1	6
11	Cagliari	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Chievo	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Spal	5	1	1	3	-5	4
15	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Udinese	6	1	0	5	-5	3
17	Genoa	5	0	2	3	-4	2
18	Verona	5	0	2	3	-10	2
19	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-10	1
20	Benevento	5	0	0	5	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Torino	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Sampdoria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Spal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Verona	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Benevento	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Inter	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sampdoria	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Chievo	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Fiorentina	3	1	0	2	+1	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Verona	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Spal	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Crotone	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Benevento	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.