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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Swansea

U T S T U

1–2

Full-time

Watford

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 10%

20%

Average goals

1,4

3,2

Scored

0,4

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 14. · Watford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	1	0	+14	13
2	Man United	5	4	1	0	+14	13
3	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Huddersfield	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Watford	5	2	2	1	-2	8
12	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Swansea	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Leicester	5	1	1	3	-2	4
16	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Everton	5	1	1	3	-8	4
19	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Huddersfield	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
8	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2
19	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Burnley	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Man United	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	West Ham	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.