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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Nacional

T S T T T

0–0

Full-time

Aves

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

26%

30%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

2,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Aves 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	28	22	3	3	+41	69
2	Benfica	27	21	3	3	+50	66
3	Sp Lisbon	27	18	4	5	+25	58
4	Sp Braga	27	18	4	5	+19	58
5	Moreirense	27	14	3	10	-1	45
6	Guimaraes	27	12	6	9	+7	42
7	Belenenses	27	9	11	7	+4	38
8	Santa Clara	27	10	5	12	+0	35
9	Rio Ave	27	8	8	11	-4	32
10	Portimonense	27	9	5	13	-7	32
11	Maritimo	27	9	3	15	-14	30
12	Aves	27	8	5	14	-11	29
13	Boavista	28	8	5	15	-14	29
14	Vitoria Setubal	27	6	10	11	-6	28
15	Nacional	27	7	5	15	-28	26
16	Tondela	27	6	7	14	-12	25
17	Chaves	27	6	6	15	-19	24
18	Feirense	27	2	9	16	-30	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	1	1	+20	37
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
3	Sp Braga	14	11	1	2	+15	34
4	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+31	32
5	Guimaraes	13	8	3	2	+9	27
6	Moreirense	13	7	3	3	+2	24
7	Portimonense	14	6	4	4	+6	22
8	Boavista	14	7	1	6	+2	22
9	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	+5	19
10	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-2	17
11	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
12	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Nacional	14	5	2	7	-5	17
14	Aves	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Tondela	13	4	3	6	-5	15
16	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-1	14
17	Chaves	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	Feirense	13	1	5	7	-8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+19	34
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+15	33
3	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+4	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+5	21
5	Moreirense	14	7	0	7	-3	21
6	Belenenses	14	4	7	3	-1	19
7	Santa Clara	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Rio Ave	13	4	3	6	-2	15
9	Guimaraes	14	4	3	7	-2	15
10	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
11	Aves	13	4	2	7	-8	14
12	Maritimo	14	4	1	9	-10	13
13	Tondela	14	2	4	8	-7	10
14	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Chaves	13	3	1	9	-14	10
16	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-23	9
17	Boavista	14	1	4	9	-16	7
18	Feirense	14	1	4	9	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.