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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Dortmund

T U U U S

1–0

Full-time

Bayern Munich

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 60%

50%

70%

Points per game

1,8

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,5

2,4

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%

11 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

0 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 6. · Bayern Munich 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	11	8	3	0	+14	27
2	Bayern Munich	10	7	3	0	+18	24
3	FC Koln	11	6	3	2	+10	21
4	Hertha	11	6	3	2	+7	21
5	Hoffenheim	10	5	5	0	+7	20
6	Dortmund	10	5	3	2	+13	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Mainz	11	5	2	4	+1	17
9	Leverkusen	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Freiburg	11	5	0	6	-5	15
11	Schalke 04	11	4	2	5	+2	14
12	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	M'gladbach	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Wolfsburg	11	2	3	6	-5	9
15	Darmstadt	11	2	2	7	-11	8
16	Werder Bremen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	1	2	8	-13	5
18	Hamburg	10	0	2	8	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+13	14
3	FC Koln	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	RB Leipzig	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Freiburg	5	4	0	1	+2	12
6	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+9	11
7	M'gladbach	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+3	11
9	Hoffenheim	5	3	2	0	+3	11
10	Mainz	5	3	1	1	+4	10
11	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+1	10
12	Schalke 04	5	3	0	2	+5	9
13	Darmstadt	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Wolfsburg	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
18	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Hoffenheim	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+1	8
5	Dortmund	5	2	1	2	+4	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+3	7
7	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Mainz	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	1	1	4	-6	4
14	Freiburg	6	1	0	5	-7	3
15	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-8	1
16	M'gladbach	5	0	1	4	-11	1
17	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-13	1
18	Darmstadt	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.