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La Liga
Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Vallecano
T T T U T
2–0
Full-time
Valencia
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
2,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,8
This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 27%
20%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
60%
30%
Both score Ø 57%
63%
50%
Average goals
2,9
1,9
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%
15 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 7
1 Offside 4
17 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vallecano 19. · Valencia 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 30 21 7 2 +48 70
2 Ath Madrid 30 18 8 4 +26 62
3 Real Madrid 31 19 3 9 +18 60
4 Getafe 30 12 11 7 +10 47
5 Sevilla 30 13 7 10 +12 46
6 Valencia 30 10 16 4 +9 46
7 Alaves 30 12 8 10 -6 44
8 Ath Bilbao 30 10 13 7 -1 43
9 Sociedad 30 10 10 10 +1 40
10 Betis 30 11 7 12 -5 40
11 Eibar 31 9 12 10 -2 39
12 Leganes 30 10 9 11 -4 39
13 Espanol 31 10 8 13 -10 38
14 Girona 31 8 10 13 -10 34
15 Levante 30 8 8 14 -12 32
16 Villarreal 30 6 12 12 -5 30
17 Valladolid 30 7 9 14 -17 30
18 Celta 30 7 8 15 -10 29
19 Vallecano 30 6 6 18 -22 24
20 Huesca 30 5 8 17 -20 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vallecano Valencia
Raúl de Tomás 🟨
14′
29′
🟨 Ferrán Torres
1–0 Raúl de Tomás
Adri Embarba
32′
Half-time 1–0
Alejandro Gálvez 🟨
55′
60′
🔁 Gonçalo Guedes
↦ Ferrán Torres
60′
🔁 K. Gameiro
↦ Rodrigo
Álvaro García 🔁
↦ Álex Moreno
66′
U. Agbo 🔁
↦ Bebé
73′
76′
🟨 Facundo Roncaglia
81′
🔁 D. Wass
↦ F. Roncaglia
E. Velázquez 🔁
↦ Alejandro Gálvez
82′
84′
🟨 Mouctar Diakhaby
2–0 Mario Suárez
Adri Embarba
91′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Vallecano

4-1-4-1
1 Alberto García G
2 Tito D
17 L. Advíncula D
21 A. Ba D
23 Alejandro Gálvez D
15 Mario Suárez M
22 José Ángel Pozo M
7 Álex Moreno D
14 Bebé F
9 Raúl de Tomás F
11 Adri Embarba M
Bench (7)
18 Álvaro García
3 U. Agbo
20 E. Velázquez
24 Javi Guerra
13 S. Dimitrievski
28 Sergio Akieme
27 Santi Comesaña

Coach: Paco Jémez

Valencia

4-4-2
13 Neto G
4 F. Roncaglia D
5 Gabriel Paulista D
14 José Gayá D
12 M. Diakhaby D
10 Dani Parejo M
11 D. Cheryshev M
6 G. Kondogbia M
20 Ferrán Torres M
19 Rodrigo F
22 Santi Mina F
Bench (7)
7 Gonçalo Guedes
9 K. Gameiro
18 D. Wass
24 E. Garay
1 Jaume Doménech
15 Toni Lato
8 Carlos Soler

Coach: Marcelino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Javier Alberola Rojas · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.