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Bundesliga
Referee: Benjamin Cortus
Dortmund
U U U S T
3–1
Full-time
Stuttgart
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Stuttgart
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,7
4,0
Scored
2,2
1,7
Conceded
1,5
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 44%
67%
21%
Points per game
2,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
71%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
71%
46%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
2,4
1,0
Conceded
1,1
2,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

75% Possession 25%
18 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 1. · Stuttgart 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 24 16 6 2 +31 54
2 Bayern Munich 24 17 3 4 +29 54
3 RB Leipzig 24 13 6 5 +23 45
4 M'gladbach 24 13 4 7 +13 43
5 Ein Frankfurt 24 11 7 6 +17 40
6 Leverkusen 24 12 3 9 +8 39
7 Wolfsburg 24 11 6 7 +8 39
8 Werder Bremen 25 9 9 7 +6 36
9 Hertha 24 9 8 7 +3 35
10 Hoffenheim 24 8 10 6 +11 34
11 Fortuna Dusseldorf 24 9 4 11 -11 31
12 Mainz 24 8 6 10 -11 30
13 Freiburg 24 6 9 9 -6 27
14 Schalke 04 25 6 5 14 -16 23
15 Augsburg 24 5 6 13 -12 21
16 Stuttgart 24 5 4 15 -28 19
17 Hannover 24 3 5 16 -34 14
18 Nurnberg 24 2 7 15 -31 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Stuttgart
Half-time 0–0
57′
🟨 Steven Zuber
1–0 M. Reus
62′
68′
🟨 Emiliano Insúa
Marco Reus 🟨
69′
Marius Wolf 🟨
70′
70′
🔁 A. Donis
↦ S. Zuber
71′
M. Kempf 1–1
G. Castro
74′
🔁 C. Gentner
↦ N. González
C. Pulisic 🔁
↦ Raphaël Guerreiro
79′
2–1 Paco Alcácer
C. Pulisic
84′
Axel Witsel 🟨
86′
D. Zagadou 🔁
↦ M. Wolf
88′
88′
🔁 M. Gómez
↦ E. Insúa
90′
🟨 Santiago Ascacibar
T. Delaney 🔁
↦ Paco Alcácer
91′
3–1 C. Pulisic
M. Götze
92′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-1-4-1
1 R. Bürki G
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
4 A. Diallo D
16 M. Akanji D
5 A. Hakimi D
28 A. Witsel M
10 M. Götze M
7 J. Sancho M
11 M. Reus M
9 Paco Alcácer F
27 M. Wolf M
Bench (7)
22 C. Pulisic
2 D. Zagadou
6 T. Delaney
18 L. Balerdi
35 M. Hitz
29 M. Schmelzer
34 J. Bruun Larsen

Coach: L. Favre

Stuttgart

5-3-2
1 R. Zieler G
32 A. Beck D
2 E. Insúa D
4 M. Kempf D
21 B. Pavard D
18 O. Kabak D
14 A. Esswein M
9 S. Zuber M
8 G. Castro M
6 S. Ascacíbar M
22 N. González F
Bench (7)
11 A. Donis
20 C. Gentner
27 M. Gómez
13 J. Grahl
5 T. Baumgartl
10 D. Didavi
3 D. Aogo

Coach: M. Weinzierl

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Benjamin Cortus · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.