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Bundesliga
Referee: Markus Schmidt
Dortmund
U S U S S
4–3
Full-time
Augsburg
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
3,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
3,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%
20 Shots 12
8 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
4 Free kicks against 22
1 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 1. · Augsburg 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 +14 14
2 Werder Bremen 7 4 2 1 +5 14
3 Bayern Munich 6 4 1 1 +7 13
4 Hertha 6 4 1 1 +5 13
5 M'gladbach 6 3 2 1 +3 11
6 RB Leipzig 6 3 2 1 +1 11
7 Wolfsburg 7 2 3 2 -1 9
8 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 +2 8
9 Mainz 6 2 2 2 +0 8
10 Nurnberg 6 2 2 2 -3 8
11 Hoffenheim 6 2 1 3 +0 7
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 1 3 +0 7
13 Freiburg 6 2 1 3 -4 7
14 Leverkusen 6 2 0 4 -6 6
15 Fortuna Dusseldorf 6 1 2 3 -4 5
16 Stuttgart 6 1 2 3 -5 5
17 Schalke 04 6 1 0 5 -6 3
18 Hannover 6 0 2 4 -8 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Augsburg
4′
🟨 Daniel Baier
22′
A. Finnbogason 0–1
42′
🟨 André Hahn
Half-time 0–1
Marco Reus 🟨
52′
54′
🟨 Rani Khedira
59′
🟨 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
Paco Alcácer 🔁
↦ M. Philipp
59′
1–1 Paco Alcácer
J. Sancho
62′
63′
🟨 Caiuby
64′
🔁 F. Götze
↦ D. Baier
Raphaël Guerreiro 🔁
↦ J. Bruun Larsen
69′
71′
P. Max 1–2
A. Hahn
75′
🔁 J. Morávek
↦ A. Hahn
M. Götze 🔁
↦ J. Weigl
77′
79′
🟨 Alfreð Finnbogason
2–2 Paco Alcácer
Raphaël Guerreiro
80′
83′
🔁 S. Córdova
↦ A. Finnbogason
3–2 M. Götze
A. Hakimi
84′
87′
M. Gregoritsch 3–3
P. Max
90′
🟨 Sergio Córdova
4–3 Paco Alcácer
96′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 R. Bürki G
4 A. Diallo D
16 M. Akanji D
5 A. Hakimi D
2 D. Zagadou D
28 A. Witsel M
33 J. Weigl M
7 J. Sancho F
11 M. Reus M
20 M. Philipp F
34 J. Bruun Larsen M
Bench (7)
9 Paco Alcácer
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
10 M. Götze
6 T. Delaney
19 M. Dahoud
26 Ł. Piszczek
35 M. Hitz

Coach: L. Favre

Augsburg

4-2-2-2
1 A. Luthe G
36 M. Hinteregger D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
31 P. Max D
32 R. Framberger D
10 D. Baier M
30 Caiuby M
28 A. Hahn F
11 M. Gregoritsch M
8 R. Khedira M
27 A. Finnbogason F
Bench (7)
4 F. Götze
14 J. Morávek
21 S. Córdova
13 F. Giefer
17 J. Schmid
24 F. Jensen
38 K. Danso

Coach: M. Baum

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Markus Schmidt · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.