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Premier League
Referee: Jonathan Moss
Watford
S S T U T
0–4
Full-time
Bournemouth
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Bournemouth
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,3
This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 57%
57%
57%
Points per game
1,9
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
57%
71%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
2,7
3,4
Scored
1,6
1,7
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

47% Possession 53%
14 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 7
10 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 9
5 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Watford 6. · Bournemouth 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 7 6 1 0 +18 19
2 Liverpool 7 6 1 0 +12 19
3 Chelsea 7 5 2 0 +10 17
4 Tottenham 7 5 0 2 +7 15
5 Arsenal 7 5 0 2 +5 15
6 Watford 7 4 1 2 +3 13
7 Bournemouth 7 4 1 2 +0 13
8 Leicester 7 4 0 3 +3 12
9 Wolves 7 3 3 1 +2 12
10 Man United 7 3 1 3 -2 10
11 Everton 7 2 3 2 +0 9
12 Brighton 8 2 2 4 -4 8
13 Burnley 7 2 1 4 -2 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 -3 7
15 West Ham 8 2 1 5 -5 7
16 Southampton 7 1 2 4 -5 5
17 Fulham 7 1 2 4 -8 5
18 Newcastle 7 0 2 5 -6 2
19 Cardiff 7 0 2 5 -12 2
20 Huddersfield 7 0 2 5 -13 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Watford Bournemouth
Christian Kabasele 🟨
11′
14′
D. Brooks 0–1
Craig Cathcart 🟨
22′
Christian Kabasele 🟨
32′
Christian Kabasele 🟥
32′
33′
J. King 0–2
45′
J. King 0–3
C. Wilson
Half-time 0–4
47′
C. Wilson 0–4
R. Fraser
A. Mariappa 🔁
↦ W. Hughes
55′
I. Success 🔁
↦ A. Gray
55′
66′
🔁 J. Stanislas
↦ R. Fraser
José Holebas 🟨
68′
70′
🔁 D. Gosling
↦ D. Brooks
Deulofeu 🔁
↦ R. Pereyra
74′
78′
🔁 A. Surman
↦ L. Cook
87′
🟨 Andrew Surman
Abdoulaye Doucouré 🟨
89′
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Watford

4-2-2-2
26 B. Foster G
25 J. Holebas D
15 C. Cathcart D
27 C. Kabasele D
21 Kiko Femenía D
29 E. Capoue M
37 R. Pereyra M
16 A. Doucouré M
19 W. Hughes M
9 T. Deeney F
18 A. Gray F
Bench (7)
6 A. Mariappa
10 I. Success
7 Deulofeu
1 Gomes
11 A. Masina
12 K. Sema
14 N. Chalobah

Coach: Javi Gracia

Bournemouth

4-4-2
27 A. Begović G
2 S. Francis D
15 A. Smith D
3 S. Cook D
5 N. Aké D
24 R. Fraser M
8 J. Lerma M
16 L. Cook M
20 D. Brooks M
13 C. Wilson F
17 J. King F
Bench (7)
19 J. Stanislas
4 D. Gosling
6 A. Surman
1 A. Boruc
10 J. Ibe
18 J. Defoe
21 Diego Rico

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jonathan Moss · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.