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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Dortmund

T U U T S

2–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,9

Scored

2,3

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 13

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 8. · Hoffenheim 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	13	2	2	+26	41
2	Schalke 04	17	8	6	3	+7	30
3	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+3	28
4	M'gladbach	17	8	4	5	-1	28
5	Leverkusen	16	7	6	3	+11	27
6	Hoffenheim	16	7	5	4	+6	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	5	5	+2	26
8	Dortmund	16	7	4	5	+14	25
9	Augsburg	17	6	6	5	+4	24
10	Hannover	16	6	4	6	-2	22
11	Hertha	16	5	6	5	+0	21
12	Wolfsburg	17	3	10	4	+0	19
13	Freiburg	17	4	7	6	-14	19
14	Stuttgart	17	5	2	10	-8	17
15	Mainz	17	4	5	8	-9	17
16	Werder Bremen	17	3	6	8	-7	15
17	Hamburg	17	4	3	10	-10	15
18	FC Koln	17	1	3	13	-22	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+19	22
2	Hoffenheim	9	5	3	1	+8	18
3	Schalke 04	9	5	3	1	+6	18
4	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+8	17
5	M'gladbach	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Leverkusen	8	4	4	0	+9	16
7	Stuttgart	8	5	1	2	+4	16
8	Hannover	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Freiburg	9	3	5	1	+2	14
10	Hertha	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	Augsburg	9	3	4	2	+3	13
12	Mainz	9	4	1	4	-1	13
13	Wolfsburg	9	2	6	1	+2	12
14	Hamburg	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Dortmund	7	3	1	3	+8	10
16	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Werder Bremen	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	FC Koln	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	1	2	+7	19
2	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	3	1	+4	18
3	Dortmund	9	4	3	2	+6	15
4	Schalke 04	8	3	3	2	+1	12
5	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+2	11
6	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	-3	11
8	RB Leipzig	9	3	2	4	-5	11
9	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Hannover	9	2	2	5	-8	8
11	Hertha	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Wolfsburg	8	1	4	3	-2	7
13	Werder Bremen	9	1	4	4	-4	7
14	Freiburg	8	1	2	5	-16	5
15	Mainz	8	0	4	4	-8	4
16	Hamburg	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	FC Koln	9	0	2	7	-13	2
18	Stuttgart	9	0	1	8	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.